2019 Predictions w/ Special Guest Tim Sackett

January 4, 2019

What could be better than predictions for the New Year by Chad & Cheese? How about those two being joined by industry veteran Tim Sackett? Well, your wish is our command.

 

Enjoy, and continue supporting our sponsors in the new year. Sovren, JobAdX and Canvas rock our world.

 

PODCAST TRANSCRIPTION sponsored by:

Disability Solutions helps companies find talent in the largest minority community in the world – people with disabilities.

 

Announcer:        Hide your kids, lock the doors, you're listening to HR's most dangerous podcast. Chad Sowash and Joel Cheesman are here to punch the recruiting industry right where it hurts. Complete with breaking news, brash opinion and loads of snark, buckle up boys and girls. It's time for the Chad and Cheese Podcast.

 

Joel:                       Merry New Year boys and girls. Welcome to the Chad and Cheese Podcast, HR's most dangerous, but today way more charming as we welcome Tim Nutsacket to our show this week we break down last year's predictions, look at next year's predictions and probably talk sports and beer and some other shit. Nurse that hangover, 'cause it's about to get intoxicating right after this word from JobAdX.

 

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Joel:                       Tim I pronounced your last name correctly in the opening, right?

 

Tim:                       Oh Nutsacket.

 

Joel:                       Welcome back, Tim, It's been a year.

 

Tim:                       I know and I can't tell you, I mean I've heard from tens of people that've listened to your podcast that are like, "Oh my gosh I can't believe that you're gonna be on the most dangerous HR podcast ever, which is so sad.

 

Joel:                       To highlight you said tens, right?

 

Tim:                       Tens.

 

Joel:                       We have way more listeners than we thought, Jeff.

 

Chad:                    Yeah I know it's pretty awesome. I know we've got like ... But most are our family though, right?

 

Joel:                       Yeah. Well Tim welcome to the show, man. New listeners won't know that you were on our year end show or year beginning show last year, to go through predictions. You were star of one of our most popular podcasts last year which was the indeed jail podcast.

 

Tim:                       Going to jail.

 

Joel:                       So it's always a treat.

 

Tim:                       I mean right, I've gotten more content out of Indeed putting me in jail for the year and then deciding to screw over every staffing firm, it just keeps clicking away. Love it.

 

Joel:                       You and Chad have made a career out of fucking Indeed, it's great.

 

Tim:                       That's just 'cause they love fucking everybody else, so I mean it's fair play, bub.

 

Joel:                       And they stole your Christmas sweater idea.

 

Tim:                       Sons of bitches. You guys had a great Christmas sweater.

 

Joel:                       Dude. That's all Chad, man. I don't want any credit for that.

 

Chad:                    You're not gonna get any credit because it was my idea, you thought it was dumb and everybody else is like, "That is the shit." I'm like, "I know it's the shit."

 

Tim:                       I just wanna know how far ahead of time do you have to think about that to get it to China to have some seven year old kid make it, like it's ... That'd have to be at least nine months.

 

Chad:                    It's made in Germany, man, and it actually took about eight weeks, yeah.

 

Joel:                       The country that gave us Claudia Schiffer also gave us that God awful sweater.

 

Chad:                    It's fuckin' awesome, dude. I love it.

 

Chad:                    Let's talk about 2018 predictions, where we came out, and first and foremost I'd like to say that I was wrong because Saquon Barkley was a hit but Ed in Philly, shut up Penn State still sucks.

 

Chad:                    Cleveland took Mayfield, which Joel was wrong and I was right because the

Browns, they love the bad boy. But he's not doin' too bad right now, is he?

 

Joel:                       I'm warming up to him. Little by little.

 

Chad:                    At the end of the day in 2018 we all agree Michigan still sucks, so ...

 

Joel:                       Amen to that.

 

Chad:                    So those were kind of like the pre not talent predictions.

 

Joel:                       Did we really talk like draft predictions on last year's show?

 

Chad:                    Yeah we did, we did, we talked a little bit about draft predictions and who we thought was going to kick ass and take names.

 

Tim:                       What do you guys think about the process of all these kids not playing in ball game?

 

Joel:                       Don't like it, but totally get it. I do think you have to be a top ten to 15 player to do it, though. So my wife is a West Virginia grad and Will Grier is arguably a top five quarterback in the draft. He's projected to go second or third round. He has said, "I'm not gonna play in the game." To me he should play, 'cause he could light up whoever and maybe even move up into a first rounder, but I think you shouldn't do it unless you're like a top ten or 15 pick.

 

Tim:                       Yeah, Michigan State's got a quarterback that literally is like he might be a six or seventh round or even not get drafted, he's not playing and you wanna go, "I don't know if you're helping yourself."

 

Chad:                    There's a risk reward there, right? In that case, that's all about reward. I really don't see a risk there, but my pick for this year where it's around the same thing but Nick Bosa, he went out early in the season with an injury and he decided not to come back but here's my prediction. I still think he's gonna go top five picks because he dominated every game he was in and genetics, big guys, his dad played in the NFL and his brother is tearin' the shit out of offensive lines right now.

 

Joel:                       This is how Chad does his predictions, like he looks at every mock draft that has Bosa as a top five pick and then he comes on the show and goes, "I think he's gonna be a top five pick, that's my prediction." Like that's such a bold pick, every expert has him top five and now Chad has him top five.

 

Chad:                    I didn't look at anything.

 

Joel:                       Way to put yourself out there, Chad.

 

Tim:                       I'm gonna put one out there. Duke's gonna win the NCA tournament.

 

Chad:                    That's a good one. I like that one.

 

Joel:                       That's a good one like would you take Duke over the field?

 

Tim:                       Oh God yeah. I would take Duke over the field right now in a heartbeat.

 

Joel:                       I'll go sports. Jim Harbaugh is not the coach of Michigan next year.

 

Tim:                       No.

 

Joel:                       It goes to the pros.

 

Tim:                       That's a good one though, I like that.

 

Joel:                       And potentially Cleveland is in the Catbird seat for his services. I think he's either in Cleveland or Green Bay.

 

Tim:                       Did Ohio state make the right decision?

 

Chad:                    Which one?

 

Joel:                       Meaning what?

 

Tim:                       Just moving the guy up.

 

Chad:                    I think he did a good job for the first part of the season, first four games. So yeah and he's in the system so yeah I think he was the logical step.

 

Joel:                       He's on a short leash. I mean Ohio State's too big of a job just to like put the next guy in line. Someone bigger will come along.

 

Chad:                    We'll see.

 

Joel:                       Let's get to recruiting predictions and review last year's brilliant commentary that we had.

 

Chad:                    Okay, so the first one, Tim, was sourcing is dead in 2018. Which I'm going to say not so fast, not so fast, there was a lot of talking about it but that didn't quite happen. What do you think about that, Tim?

 

Tim:                       I still think when you take a look at kind of the evolution of sourcing tech that the run of the mill sourcing sourcer that has to go out the right balloon strings and stuff, like that job's gone away. You don't need that anymore.

 

Chad:                    So you feel like it's good.

 

Tim:                       I thought the prediction was pretty good, I mean ...

 

Joel:                       Alright. The judges disagree.

 

Chad:                    So that being said, I was just about on the same bandwagon. I was more on the RPA process side of the house and I thought that that would pretty much be a standard in all the process in 2018 and that's just not the case, so yeah I was wrong there. And Joel predicted Glassdoor goes public, which did not happen.

 

Joel:                       But they would have, had they not been acquired.

 

Chad:                    Did not happen.

 

Tim:                       Doesn't matter if it would have.

 

Chad:                    It did not happen.

 

Joel:                       Fine.

 

Chad:                    Second round, Tim said, "Employee referral automation gains adoption." I think that one goes into the category of who gives a fuck.

 

Tim:                       When you take a look, still, it didn't and I could put that on the list this year too 'cause I still think it's like the highest ROI most underutilized recruiting tech on the market and I still don't [crosstalk 00:09:02]

 

Chad:                    Which is why they won't do it.

 

Tim:                       Yeah. I don't get it. If people think they can do it for free, they're like, "We have a referral program, it's on the wall in the lunchroom we'll go look at it."

 

Chad:                    Exactly.

 

Tim:                       That shit doesn't work.

 

Chad:                    So my second pick which incredibly bold, CareerBuilder and Monster start surging back.

 

Tim:                       It would have been better if you had said CareerBuilder and Monster merged.

 

Joel:                       Key word there is start. Like you could argue that they started, didn't quite get there.

 

Chad:                    Yeah, I think I mean CareerBuilder gave us a lot to talk about this year. They were dramatic changes, El Chapo ...

 

Joel:                       They were the gift that kept on giving in 2018.

 

Chad:                    Oh my God. Monster really didn't do much of anything, right? So it was a

difference between there was a lot of stupid shit happening versus not much happening at all, so I mean there was a start of something but I sure don't know what the fuck that was.

 

Tim:                       Well no, Monster announced the whole video studio thing, right? That was really cool but then it wasn't actually available.

 

Chad:                    Once again I don't know that they don't ...

 

Joel:                       Don't forget augmented reality like CareerBuilder.

 

Chad:                    Then Joel's was Amazon buys Slack which again didn't happen. Man, we are not doing well here, guys. The last one for Tim, college degrees are dead. I'm gonna get behind Tim on this one. I believe that we actually, at least the starting of this was happening just because of the talent shortage, companies really started to look at getting rid of these really, the requirements for a college degree when, in fact, you don't need a goddamn college degree to do most of these jobs. I'm gonna give him a thumbs up on that one.

 

Tim:                       Bam.

 

Joel:                       Damn.

 

Chad:                    Take that.

 

Joel:                       I think if we do this show you know, ten years from now that might hold a little more weight. Or if you would've just said, "Alternatives to college start to take serious precedence in some organizations like that would be good, but just to outright say, "College degrees are dead." Was a pretty bold prediction.

 

Chad:                    He was being very bold.

 

Tim:                       Yes.

 

Chad:                    Not so bold prediction, the ATS is going to make a comeback, that was my

third one.

 

Joel:                       And we said before the show did they actually leave?

 

Chad:                    Although ... Yeah, but I mean they weren't really haven't done anything in the recruiting talent acquisition sides, it's all been background checks and onboarding shit. But we did get iCIMS spending cash for text recruit. They also had an infusion of cash, their vision is very aggressive I believe so I think we did see a vision from at least one of these applicant tracking systems that was aggressive on the talent acquisition recruiting side of the house.

 

Joel:                       Chad's being very charitable with the predictions from last year, but okay.

 

Chad:                    Yes I am. And then last but not least, Joel voice assistance comes to employment. Google Duplex isn't ready for Prime Time yet.

 

Tim:                       Siri, can you find me a developer worth?

 

Joel:                       We're like O eight and two. That's our record. We've got a couple ties and a lot of losses.

 

Chad:                    We're the fucking Cleveland Browns of this shit is what we are.

 

Tim:                       We're playing for our first round selection from 2008.

 

Chad:                    Shit.

 

Joel:                       Very nice. And that is last year. We'll get into this year after this quick word from Sovren.

 

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Chad:                    See, and again, I'm gonna say that's the reason why AI and algorithms take over because they put sexy voices on 'em like that and there's nothing we can do.

 

Tim:                       Yeah, they come up with those like Russian names like it's Svetlana. Like here's our chat bot Svetlana.

 

Joel:                       There is no chat bot named Svetlana.

 

Tim:                       So great. Not yet. There will be now.

 

Joel:                       Adriana.

 

Chad:                    Adriana. So that being said, getting into 2019 predictions and as always we're gracious here at the Chad and Cheese podcast. We're allowing our guest to go first. So Tim, 2019 predictions.

 

Joel:                       Let's go.

 

Tim:                       As we know, you know we're gonna have a little bit of softening of the economy. We've already started to feel it with all these fourth quarter layoffs. So my prediction is is that assessment science and those vendor community out there will have a big year, it'll come back in a big way, we'll be talking more about the assessment science side. Basically because we got all in 2018 we just basically hired any warm body that would come through the door and now we can come back we can say, "Look, we don't need to hire any warm body with a hickey, we can actually hire real talented people and take our time lets put some money into that and let's upgrade the talent that we have." I don't think we'll see a bunch of layoffs, I think what we'll see is targeted kind of people getting shot 'cause they suck so bad, and then you're upgrading the talent within organizations.

 

Joel:                       I haven't heard the word hickey for about 15 years, so thank you for that,

Tim. And what is that ... Was that a warm body with a hickey, or a body with a warm hickey?

 

Tim:                       A warm body with a hickey because a cold body with a hickey is just that's just wrong.

 

Chad:                    Nobody wants that. You get boo'd for bringing that up, Cheesman. So there's been a good amount of money that's been poured into this area, the assessment area so yeah I think I could kind of get on board with that prediction.

 

Tim:                       It's kind of beyond I still think too many HR leaders, TA leaders are stuck in this kind of like, "Oh, we're doing the wonder lick or some stupid personality assessment." That's not kind of assessment science or 2018 2019. It's all kind of data driven and kind of really more sophisticated. The reality is that those things can pick people better than Harry or HR men or your supervisor and you know whatever.

 

Joel:                       Harry Hickey.

 

Tim:                       Harry Hickey, who is 20 year pro supervisor manufacturer that has no idea what he's doing. He just is basically picking somebody 'cause they came in with Lion shirt on versus a Packer shirt or something.

 

Chad:                    And that's bias, my friend and we won't have it.

 

Tim:                       Bam.

 

Joel:                       Exactly.

 

Chad:                    We won't have it. Alright, Cheesman, you're first.

 

Joel:                       My turn. Okay. Mine is much more specific than this sort of gray ethos prediction that Tim makes.

 

Tim:                       That way in 2020 I can definitely say, "See? My prediction came true."

 

Joel:                       Yeah you've got the trumpification of predictions. Definitely can get out of that one in the future.

 

Joel:                       Okay, mine is that at least one of the following CEOs will not make it to

2020, meaning they will get fired. Those three will be Monster CEO Scott Gutz, DHI CEO Art

Zeile or CareerBuilder CEO Irina Svetlana Novoselsky.

 

Tim:                       Don't do that.

 

Joel:                       One of those three will be fired when we get together next year. At least

one.

 

Tim:                       Okay, real quick let's do a Fuck Mary, Kill. Go ahead.

 

Chad:                    So Tim. So your pick.

 

Joel:                       Who can most survive the year and whose most likely gonna get canned?

 

Tim:                       So I mean I had personal conversations with each of these people in 2018. I've spent time with all of them, so I feel really bad about having to make that prediction of who would get shot first. I will say the Dice CEO. I just think their product is probably struggling. It has less name recognition than the CareerBuilder Monster stuff that who can still kind of get money from non suspecting TA leaders HR leaders.

 

Chad:                    Yeah. I'm with Tim, I think, and I'm not gonna be as nice, just because Art won't come on the fucking show and talk through it, but ...

 

Tim:                       Art's a good guy, I think he really believes in the company and the product, I just, you know.

 

Chad:                    Well yeah but he was at TA tech in New Orleans talking about onboarding and shit. I mean it's like what the fuck are you guys doing over there? Your product sucks but you wanna talk about down stream shit? I mean this doesn't make any sense whatsoever, so I'm not sure that they have the focus and yeah I just, from a product standpoint they haven't been able to keep up. So they would have to leap frog and I don't think that they have the resources to be able to do that, so I think Art's dead in the water. Scott's only been in the job for shit, five, six months.

 

Joel:                       Six months.

 

Chad:                    Yeah, and you know I think Randstad, yes they do focus heavily on margins and eBid and those types of things, but I think he's got a little bit more rope than Art does.

 

Joel:                       I'll zag a little bit from your zigging just for the sake of argument. I'd say Monster has the best chance of surviving. They've got a road map, they've got executives around he's got a team like ... I don't think Randstad is gonna pull the plug, I don't think they're gonna sell the company in the next year but I'll go ahead and say CareerBuilder will get axed. But more likely because they sell the company or just have a total sort of change of leadership and executives and all kinds of stuff but I don't think it'll be performance necessarily as opposed to just a major change in the company. I think her CFO background opposed to the tech background of the other two really lend itself to saying, "Sell it, chop it up." It doesn't really say, "Innovation and like new tomorrows." To me.

 

Chad:                    She's an Apollo person though, so I think if that happens she'll be moved out to another position somewhere else as opposed to just chopped and ejected out. So if that does happen, I mean she was moved in there from Apollo as an Apollo person, company woman, to be put into that slot.

 

Tim:                       She shows she's the one to make some tough calls, I mean, so she's definitely a strong leader. I don't know if that company, it doesn't matter who leads that company, I don't know if they're coming back, but I think I agree with Joel on that is that she'll probably move out to some place else.

 

Chad:                    Alright, so are we ready for more?

 

Joel:                       Alright brainiac.

 

Chad:                    Alright, so I'm going to springboard off of Tim's from last year because I think there's a good possibility of it happening this year is much better obviously than what happened in 2018.

 

Joel:                       So if this is like Tim's is it like water's wet or sky is blue?

 

Chad:                    Kind of. No, I'm gonna say Booleon is dead and candidate matching becomes standard in recruiting platforms 'cause I mean seriously, let's face it, recruiters are spending 7.4 seconds reviewing a single resume, which is stupid when an algorithm can review thousands of profiles in that same time frame and match qualified candidates to the requisitions. So platform vendors who wanna stay ahead of the talent acquisition ask or they're already moving in that direction anyway and they have been in 2018 and all those TA professionals who don't want their CHRO or their CEO to ask them, "Hey, what are we doing in AI or process automation?" They've already started doing due diligence or they have somebody doing it, it'll start to take place traction wise in 2019. So I think the matching piece is going to be a standard for companies.

 

Joel:                       So just to specify. You're not saying sourcing is dead, but you're just saying the process of Booleon searches are dead?

 

Chad:                    Yeah.

 

Joel:                       By human beings.

 

Chad:                    Yeah. It's gonna be done by an algorithm and all of that is gonna be taking place with platforms as opposed to people.

 

Joel:                       However Booleon in searches will forever work in google, just so you know.

 

Chad:                    Okay.

 

Joel:                       Just throwing that out there.

 

Chad:                    Booleon for candidates.

 

Joel:                       Google will not kill a Booleon search train.

 

Chad:                    No, they are killing the Booleon search train. Did you see their candidate match API? It's already in Google Hire.

 

Joel:                       I'm talking literally you'll still always be able to put in a Booleon search in Google and click search.

 

Chad:                    We're talking about talent acquisition here.

 

Joel:                       I'm bein' a smartass, this is what we do on the show.

 

Chad:                    Oh, my bad, okay good job.

 

Joel:                       Thanks.

 

Chad:                    So that being said, I get to jump to my turn to go to my second prediction. That was a good one that Booleon is dead one. Number two. This is my softball prediction. Microsoft acquires Upwork. I think we can all agree. Tell me if if I'm wrong, that the world of work is changing, especially with the way that the landscape is when it comes to hiring and Microsoft could definitely bridge a huge talent shortage gap by providing individuals who can pretty much knock out products, freelancers, projects, all that other happy horse shit. Instead of doing FTE stuff they could do it through Upwork and then linking it into LinkedIn. So being able to utilize LinkedIn, what do they have like six hundred million profiles or some shit like that?

 

Joel:                       Yep.

 

Chad:                    Being able to add those freelancers into the mix and then start to introduce the world of freelancers in Upwork to their millions of clients I think is smart. Not to mention you know I think they're already doing that with a partnership. I think this is just a trickle until they get acquired.

 

Joel:                       Don't forget GitHub.

 

Tim:                       So Chad's prediction is LinkedIn becomes the largest staffing vendor in the world?

 

Chad:                    Not yet. That'll happen in 2020 or 21, but first it's baby steps Tim. You've gotta acquire.

 

Tim:                       You've gotta build it. Build the machine.

 

Joel:                       My question is okay, let's assume that Upwork does get acquired. Do you predict others will be vying for their platform as well and if so, who? Do you think this means that someone like a Fiverr or an Upwork competitor also gets acquired?

 

Chad:                    Yeah, that's a great question because I think, well first off the first question, I think Upwork is already kind of in the courting phase with Microsoft to go through the whole acquisition piece, that just ... My feeling. I think that that is probably just about done. But yes, when that happens the fibers and all the other platforms that are out there I think obviously their value goes up and then you have all these other lifestyle types of organizations who are looking to perspectively pull them in to their suites.

 

Joel:                       So you don't think like an Indeed gets into freelancing or ZipRecruiter?

 

Chad:                    Not unless they buy into it.

 

Joel:                       Tim? No, okay.

 

Tim:                       I don't think so.

 

Joel:                       Fair enough.

 

Tim:                       That would take you know, like forethought, right?

 

Joel:                       I love Tim 'cause he's so optimistic about all of the vendors in our space.

 

Chad:                    Well yeah, 'cause he hates Indeed and Indeed really doesn't-

 

Tim:                       I do not hate Indeed, that's just a vicious rumor.

 

Joel:                       Yeah, that's okay.

 

Chad:                    And ZipRecruiter I think is incredibly focused in what they're doing right now as it is and perspectively kind of catapulting into enterprise. I think this would take their eye off the ball.

 

Joel:                       Do you still think Ubers been sort of dancing around this opportunity, do you think they get into the gig economy as well?

 

Chad:                    Oh yeah, they're already doing test markets right now. So they're going to get into this, especially if the market stays the way it is now with the amount of jobs versus the head count, it just makes sense. Not to mention they have a platform that already has all this talent available, if they can get the types of jobs that match the talent that they have beyond just driving it just makes good sense. And it's another revenue stream.

 

Tim:                       I think Uber's position better for doing that on a lower skilled kind of platform, right? Versus Upwork and Fiverr are definitely upscaled versus the Uber side.

 

Joel:                       Yep.

 

Tim:                       So it's two different markets.

 

Joel:                       And Upwork tends to be more knowledge based folks as opposed to Uber which I think could be like restaurants and delivery and all that good stuff. There's probably and extra-

 

Tim:                       You either cook tonight for eight dollars, show up.

 

Joel:                       No ghosting at Uber.

 

Chad:                    No. Alright Joel, it's your turn.

 

Joel:                       Alright, I'll serve up my softball since you did as well. So number one, I'm still standing by my Slack gets acquired by Amazon but I know that we can't reiterate past predictions so I'm gonna put in ZipRecruiter in play here. Normally I would say like I think Facebook would be a prime acquirer of ZipRecruiter. However I think with Facebook's recent issues with data and privacy and all that good stuff I think Facebook is gonna take their eye off the employment ball and I think ZipRecruiter files for IPO in 2019.

 

Chad:                    Okay, okay. So we'll see who buys them up before they get the IPO because this is, that's the Cheesman death now right there.

 

Joel:                       Well they're really the last one standing, right? So we'll see what happens.

 

Chad:                    Yep.

 

Tim:                       You know, 'cause I have the next to do a prediction I'm totally gonna go off script 'cause I came up with another one as we're talking.

 

Chad:                    Okay.

 

Joel:                       Love it.

 

Tim:                       SHRM is going to purchase LRP. Because here's the thing, right, we saw that where ERE's been after Talent42, right? And there's too many conferences, we started to see like this consolidation and I think SHRM wants to figure out how do we get away from just being HR leading central and how do we get into the tech space or the talent acquisition space? If you think about they're so big, who could they really go after? I don't see 'em going after ERE but I do see 'em potentially going after the HR side of LRP.

 

Joel:                       Which would just be HR Tech, right?

 

Tim:                       Well, yeah recruiting trends as well so they have a four way into a really big kind of recruiting conference potential I think what Elaine's doing out there is really cool stuff, and I think the vendor community supports LRP in a big way.

 

Joel:                       Does SHRM historically make acquisitions?

 

Tim:                       Yeah and not well. They tend to buy and they have a lot of, "This is gonna be great." And then they dissolves whatever they bought into the greater SHRM but I think Johnny, the CEO took a beating in 2018. I think he's a really smart guy and I do think he's been pushing that organization to really think outside the box and it just kind of hit me when you guys were talking about acquisition and so for whatever reason it popped into my head. The whole thing with Talent42 I really think we're gonna see a consolidation of the conference space happen and I wouldn't be shocked, so we'll see.

 

Joel:                       Nice audible Tim, I liked that. Alright well we're six predictions down and three more to go. Let's take a break and listen to a word from Canvas and we'll get to our last predictions.

 

Canvas:                Canvas is the world's first intelligent tech spaced interviewing platform empowering recruiters to engage, screen and record any logistics via text and so much more. We keep the human, that's you, at the center while Canvasbot is at your side adding automation to your workflow. Canvas leverages the latest in machine learning technology and has powerful integrations that help you make the most of every minute of your day. Easily amplify your employment brand with your newest culture video or add some personality to the mix by firing off a Bitmoji. We make compliance easy and are laser focused on recruiter success. Request a demo at gocanvas.io and in 20 minutes we'll show you how to text at the speed of talent. That's gocanvas.io. Get ready to text at the speed of talent.

 

Chad:                    That always makes me dance, that background music.

 

Joel:                       So my prediction is bitmojis will encompass every job posting in the next year.

 

Tim:                       I was just gonna come out and say that. My prediction for 2019 with Canvas will be the only one using Bitmoji with commercials.

 

Joel:                       That's fantastic.

 

Tim:                       And I'm a Canvas shop by the way, I love Canvas, my team loves Canvas.

 

Joel:                       Yeah. And this is coming from four middle aged white dudes.

 

Tim:                       For sure.

 

Joel:                       Using Bitmojis. Yeah. Alright, I guess am I up first in the final round here?

 

Chad:                    But first let me put this on the record, I was not dissing Bitmojis because I love 'em.

 

Joel:                       He does. Every email now has a fuckin' Bitmoji of Chad. I'm just waiting for the Bitmoji where he has his Christmas sweater on.

 

Chad:                    Oh it's coming.

 

Tim:                       It'll be on before this afternoon.

 

Joel:                       That's when I quit the show. The Bitmoji Christmas sweater.

 

Chad:                    Alright Joel, you're first.

 

Joel:                       Alright. My last prediction for 2019. We've talked about privacy a lot in the last year, we've talked about being able to grab personal data off of places, in particular LinkedIn. We've talked about LinkedIn's ongoing case with High Q about taking public profiles off of LinkedIn and then using them for your own sort of product and services. I believe in 2019 LinkedIn wins the court case against HiQ and as a result numerous sourcing platform solutions that utilize LinkedIn's data as well as GitHub which by the way has the same owner in Microsoft all go under and we really see a definite decline in new startups around sourcing and the current ones sort of laying to rest in the dead pool.

 

Tim:                       Do you think LinkedIn comes in, buys one of those sourcing techs like on the cheap knowing that they're gonna go out of business and then just lets that one be the one because I mean it's not like ... They're selling a real lot, right? These sources technology people really love and they work but it doesn't necessarily, you just can't have a LinkedIn professional license and get the same gratifications you're getting through the sourcing tech side. So I'm wondering, that should be then your prediction should lead LinkedIn to actually purchase one of these people.

 

Joel:                       I think LinkedIn wants to be the number one source for sourcing, whether it's their own profiles or whether it's whatever in GitHub I think that'll eventually integrate into LinkedIn and I think piggybacking on Chad's prediction of Upwork, you know if Upwork or freelancing contractor solution comes in to LinkedIn's dashboard then you've got full time employees you've got technology now you've got contract workers so I'm not sure buying in Entelo or hiring solved or anything like that adds that much value to what they're already doing, I mean feel free to disagree but I don't think they're losing too much if they're not sourcing blogging platforms and whatever's on Pinterest or YouTube or Instagram or Facebook. So I'd say I think they wanna be the end all be all for sourcing worker profiles.

 

Tim:                       I just thinking then they have to add a product to the roadmap within LinkedIn, right? 'Cause people still wanna buy that without necessarily having all that and then at Talent Connect this year like Shapiro whose our VP of talent solutions and all that stuff did talk about how they wanna add in all the hourly folks as well which then comes to mind who would LinkedIn acquire to get all of the blue collar types into that environment, right? Not necessarily to the LinkedIn profile environment, but into a certain kind of environment, right, that fits for them.

 

Joel:                       I also think that GDPR is going to come to the states and controlling your personal private information online ...

 

Tim:                       Is that the Russian mafia?

 

Joel:                       That's gonna be a thing. If you tell people that their LinkedIn data is being scraped and it's being used to decipher whether they might leave a job in the next six months I'm not sure they'd be real happy about that so I think privacy is gonna continue to be a paramount in the digital economy. When I talk to sourcing companies talking to Doug Berg at ZAPinfo which is essentially grabbing profiles off the web, I asked him about GDPR and his solution is well, before we grab their data we're gonna send them an email saying, "Hey there's a company or recruiter that wants to take your data and put 'em in their funnel for opportunities." How many people are gonna go, "Oh yeah, sure, random recruiter take my information." It might be one percent, two percent that do that. If that's the case, all these sourcing providers I don't see how they stay alive in the GDPR world.

 

Tim:                       Can they do it the opposite way and say, "Hey, this is going to happen unless you opt out."

 

Joel:                       It's what the law is.

 

Chad:                    GDPR is all focused on the candidate right side of the house, so the general data protection regulation piece and really since Facebook and Cambridge Analytica fucked us all, this is bearing down on us much faster, right? So when HiQ and LinkedIn all that started at first it was like, yeah, you know what that data's public, right? Now it's like, "Oh shit, what can they do with public data? How can they target us? What can they do? What are the mal intent behind this perspective platform?" So that's the hard part right now is really Facebook fucked us.

 

Joel:                       If you don't own the data, if someone didn't go to your site and voluntarily join I think you're gonna have a really hard time doing business.

 

Chad:                    And you're not gonna own the data, that's the thing is through this whole process, and it's coming to California in 2020, and the California regulations are actually stricter than GDPR, so let's just say we gotta get used to this. You're going to have to give candidates the opportunity to control where their data is, wherever it is, because it's their data, it's not the company's data.

 

Joel:                       It really means you're gonna have to write a bigger check to LinkedIn.

 

Tim:                       Literally this week in my company we had a contract engineer quit, put the two week's notice in because he'd thought we sold his data to Paycor. What we did was we actually switched January first we're switching to Paycor as our payroll provider and so they sent him a message to go through the process and he just didn't read our other emails that we told him he was doing this, and so he literally assumed that we sold data, and he didn't know what Paycor was, he thought we sold you know, and totally obviously crazy engineer guy and we're just like, "Dude, we're just trying to get your paycheck to you, you moron."

 

Chad:                    Yeah, but the guy can code. Okay. My last prediction is Google for jobs displaces Indeed as top source of traffic for employers, job taker traffic, and a little caveat on here Jobiak gets acquired. So these types of platforms, like the Jobiak's of the world that make it easy for employers to get their jobs into Google for jobs without knowing what a markup is or anything like that, or having to pay some big platform to do it like a Jive or something like that. They'll be able to go through a smaller platform like a Jobiak either transactionally or in bulk and it'll make it much easier so Google for jobs will make it easier to displace an Indeed in 2019.

 

Joel:                       So I assume you believe Indeed won't start playing nicely with Google for jobs?

 

Chad:                    No, they are too full of their fuckin' selves.

 

Joel:                       So my next question is does Glassdoor both having the same ownership stop playing nicely with Google for jobs as well?

 

Chad:                    No, I think they continue business as usual. I don't know how that's actually going to play, we'll see how that shakes out, especially if there's a full scale takeover of job search in content between Glassdoor and indeed.

 

Tim:                       I don't understand, if I'm Google right and I decided not to index Indeed, why wouldn't I do the same thing to Glassdoor who now Indeed's [crosstalk 00:39:45].

 

Chad:                    They're not deciding. They're not deciding, Indeed's making the decision not to have their jobs in Google for jobs.

 

Joel:                       I think Glassdoor has to follow suit because they're basically trying to build a mote around their solution from Google for jobs and I would say honorable mention for predictions is I wouldn't be surprised if there is no Glassdoor as we know it next year, whether it's just back fell from Indeed and they merged the reviews together and make it just one big thing or they take Glassdoor away totally I think it looks very different next year.

 

Tim:                       It's hard to do that from a variety standpoint though 'cause everybody knows Glassdoor and they get such great traffic like you almost wanna do the opposite, right? You almost wanna throw Indeed into Glassdoor from that standpoint. That would be the easier transition than it would be the other one.

 

Joel:                       You think Indeed is the lesser of brands of those two?

 

Tim:                       Well I mean who gets more traffic, Indeed or Glassdoor?

 

Joel:                       Indeed.

 

Tim:                       Really? I thought it was Glassdoor by a lot. Is it similar?

 

Joel:                       It's probably by a lot.

 

Tim:                       Wow. Well but they pay for a lot of that. Maybe I'm thinking organic. I don't know what I'm talking about.

 

Joel:                       This is a brand though. As a brand though do you think more people know Glassdoor then Indeed?

 

Tim:                       No, what I will say though is that I think Glassdoor has the safer brand side of it where, 'cause you have so many people go in there and thinking they're getting this unfiltered data, almost like a Yelp review kind of thing, right? So there's a little more friendlier play there than the Indeed side which I think is taking a hit.

 

Joel:                       To me the glaring to answer that question was when you went to HR Tech this year Indeed has a booth and Glassdoor did not, so to me that was like they've decided internally that Indeed is gonna be the brand, I think it's just a matter of time before Glassdoor gets phased out.

 

Tim:                       Yeah, no I mean I can see. One or the other right, it doesn't make sense to have both.

 

Joel:                       I agree.

 

Chad:                    To an extent though, I mean because you have two brands right now and you have to spend money on or some companies feel like they have to spend money on Glassdoor and Indeed, right? So you have two budgets for two different sources. When you start to blend them together as one source that budget becomes one and you will lose cash. I've seen it happen before. So it's one of the big steps that you don't wanna take is look, you're making X with Glassdoor and Y with Indeed, you don't wanna make less than that, so how do you do that? How do you implement that without shaving cash off and just becoming one piece of budget and then some of that money going somewhere else?

 

Joel:                       You're also losing money if you have duplicate tech teams and duplicate executive teams and executive marketing teams.

 

Chad:                    That's all behind the scenes, that is-

 

Joel:                       It's still real money.

 

Chad:                    Doesn't matter, you can do that behind the scenes without anybody knowing. What you're talking about is merging two brands, you're talking about two entirely separate conversations. You can have Indeed tech teams running underneath a Glassdoor brand. You can still have that store front open but you can consolidate tech.

 

Joel:                       So you're talking about one CEO for both companies. You're talking about

one marketing team for both companies, right?

 

Chad:                    I don't know if you need to go that far, but you can.

 

Tim:                       You could, easily.

 

Chad:                    And you're still talking about two different products. If you have two storefronts people are gonna see two different products. If you have one storefront they see one product and that's when you have an opportunity to lose cash.

 

Tim:                       So back to the prediction Chad, is it in 2019 Google for jobs will outpace Indeed for traffic? Was that your prediction? What was your prediction?

 

Chad:                    Traffic for employers to employers.

 

Tim:                       I don't know if it'll happen in 2019 but it's definitely gonna happen at some point, right? It's just a question of where that tipping point happens.

 

Chad:                    2019.

 

Joel:                       Unless Recruit Holdings buys ZipRecruiter.

 

Chad:                    That's a good point, that's a very good fuckin' point. Tim, last one man.

 

Tim:                       So this is really another big giant earth shattering one. Generational consulting 2.0 gen Z comes to town and we have every freaking millennial consultant in the world all of the sudden now becomes a generation Z consultant expert even though they literally have no idea about anything about gen Z. We're gonna see it. We've already seen the content happening, we're gonna see it in a big way. I'm jumping on board I put out what a couple weeks ago that I'm gonna have an entire gen Z blogger crew so hey, here we go. You know?

 

Joel:                       There'll be an upstart of gen X entrepreneurs using their kids to create gen Z consultancy firms.

 

Chad:                    We just saw that. We did a story on that on one of our weekly pods where an Xer obviously has a gen Z kid, kid's charismatic, knows how to speak, all that other fun stuff, he's pulled into the consulting firm and the next thing you know they've got a gen Z consulting arm, it's like what the fuck? Are you kidding?

 

Tim:                       Hey, my son who is a junior at U of M unfortunately, he couldn't get an internship. I had him start writing on the blog and he literally had offers coming from everywhere and again, if you can prove that you're young and you have a voice and you can actually produce content like someone's gonna hire you.

 

Joel:                       So say that again. Your kid in school started a blog and the job offers internship offers started coming?

 

Tim:                       So he was interviewing for internships and they kept telling if he didn't have enough experience and so I'm like, "Oh well we can change that. You just start writing one day a week on mine." And we called it like Career Confessions of Gen Z and like it got more traffic than my crap got. People loved it. They had this young guy talking shit about his dad and the whole career stuff and blah blah blah, and he did, so then he ended up taking a job at Quicken, did videos for them and all kinds of stuff. It was crazy that you'll go from not being able to get an internship to like literally a dozen different options.

 

Joel:                       That's fascinating.

 

Chad:                    It is.

 

Joel:                       Tim do you feel like as a recruiter there really is a difference in the generations or is that all bullshit?

 

Tim:                       I think you see minor differences but otherwise it's time in life issues, it's not really generational differences. Young people don't necessarily wanna buy a house and they want to live in an urban area or blah blah blah or you know, once you have kids life sucks and so it changes what you do. All that crap happens, that's just time in life that's not necessarily millennial gen X baby boom.

 

Joel:                       Fair enough.

 

Tim:                       Yeah.

 

Joel:                       Good show gentlemen.

 

Chad:                    Very nice.

 

Joel:                       Are we out?

 

Chad:                    I think we're out.

 

Joel:                       Tim are we out?

 

Tim:                       We're out.

 

Joel:                       Give us a we out.

 

Tim:                       We out.

 

Joel:                       We out.

 

Chad:                    We out.

 

Stella:                    Hi, this is Stella Cheesman. Thanks for listening to the Cheese and Chad podcast, or at least that's what I call it. Anyway make sure you subscribe on iTunes. That silly android phone thingy or wherever you listen to podcasts and be sure to give buckets of money to our sponsors. Otherwise I may be forced to take that coal mining job I saw on Monster.com. We out.

 

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