It's the return of Sackadamus! Industry icon Tim Sackett joins Chad & Cheese for their 4th annual predictions show with an eye toward 2021. Thank baby Jesus 2020 is almost over!
Enjoy this recap of 2020's predictions (spoiler alert: wrong buzzer soundbites aplenty), three predictions each for 2021 and even a listener question. Cheers to a New Year, and more of the same excellence from HR's most dangerous podcast.
All 2021 predictions powered by Sovren, Jobvite, and JobAdX.
PODCAST TRANSCRIPTION sponsored by:
Hide your kids! Lock the doors! You're listening to HR’s most dangerous podcast. Chad Sowash and Joel Cheeseman are here to punch the recruiting industry, right where it hurts! Complete with breaking news, brash opinion and loads of snark, buckle up boys and girls, it's time for the Chad and Cheese podcast.
Oh yeah. You want predictions? We got predictions and Tim Sackett to boot! What's up everybody? This is the Chad and Cheese podcast and 2020 is almost fucking over!
I'm your cohost, Joel "crystal ball" Cheeseman.
And I'm Chad "Sacadama" Sowash.
And on this week's show.
You can't steal my name.
I had to.
We're doing our annual predictions with our special guest, as always, Tim Sackett. Get comfy people.
The original predictor.
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Joel (1m 54s):
Sacradamus, Tim's never coming back. Never.
Tim (2m 4s):
I know. I was just thinking like you guys get, like, I have to do a takeover show sometime if you guys ever went on vacation and didn't do like 250 shows a year, I could just come in and take my pants off and totally lay the wood to your show.
Joel (2m 16s):
That'd be a, that'd be a high moral ground for our show.
Chad (2m 22s):
It'd be hard to stand up to. Oh, so what'd you guys get for Christmas? Favorite gifts go?
Joel (2m 28s):
Tim (2m 29s):
I got an advent gin calendar.
Chad (2m 32s):
An advent gin counter? That's awesome. Yeah. I love that. Last year I got an advent, a whiskey calendar and that was one of my favorites. So awesome. You Joel?
Joel (2m 43s):
All right. I'm I'm totally going to emasculate myself, but I don't care. My favorite gift I got a pair of
Chad (2m 49s):
Joel (2m 50s):
I got a pair of Ugg slippers and they're fucking amazing. Like lamb's wool, soft inside. They're like, you know, in Die Hard when Bruce Willis takes his shoes off and socks off and does little fists with his toes because the guy says, that's how you relieve stress. This is like that, all the time. Like it's like little fingers massage. My, my Ugg slippers are my favorite, gift that I got this year.
Chad (3m 20s):
Oh, my God, you see you're. So
Joel (3m 22s):
That's our starting off the show, everybody.
Chad (3m 26s):
I got a couple sets of Beats earphones, which is funny. One is for running and the other word, like the over the, over the ear, hopefully for this year, we'll be able to use them on, on travel during trips.
Joel (3m 43s):
I wear my Beats over the years when I'm curling pints into my mouth.
Chad (3m 47s):
That's a good call. I like that.
Joel (3m 50s):
Chad (3m 51s):
And you can do that with an advent calendar.
Joel (3m 53s):
Sure. Let's get this shit going. Cause I know we've got a lot of opinions and we got a lot of predictions. So we always, we always recap.
Chad (4m 1s):
Joel (4m 2s):
One the year prior. So
Tim (4m 4s):
Have we ever, we ever gotten one, right? That's the question, right?
Chad (4m 7s):
Right. Yeah. I think that that's debatable, but yeah, this year, this year, I think we actually might've hit one or two. So let's go into that for the first one, Tim in 2019 predicting for 2020 said Indeed would cut UK organic traffic. And I did check with, I did check with, yeah. I checked with some of my friends over in the UK, in the programmatic space, so on and so forth, that did not come true. So sorry about that, Tim. So Joel then predicted Google for Jobs monetizes.
Chad (4m 48s):
That's a big bugger. That's a no.
Joel (4m 50s):
I'm so forward-thinking though that's more like a 2024 prediction.
Chad (4m 55s):
Oh, don't worry. We'll continue to use it over and over. Then my first prediction was multiple chat bot acquisitions that did happen. Job Powell and Allenco threw it out.
Tim (5m 10s):
We'd be out there on the edge.
Chad (5m 12s):
Yeah. Well, yeah. That's, that's the only way you can get those is fishing with a net instead of a spear.
Joel (5m 18s):
And then the rest of them get gobbled up this next year.
Chad (5m 21s):
Yeah. Tim then said, end of human to human interviewing. I think that's an applause, right? That didn't happen. It was more pandemic, I think, than it was anything else. Right.
Tim (5m 34s):
Oh my God. Notrodomos, they knew the pandemic was coming.
Chad (5m 38s):
Then Joel said, Ron Stodd would sell Monster buzzer.
Tim (5m 43s):
Because theycouldn't find a buyer.
Chad (5m 47s):
Yeah. That was the only problem I then said, iCIMS acquires a programmatic vendor. They did a lot of acquisitions, but that was not one of them.
Tim (5m 56s):
They did. That might be a 20,21.
Chad (5m 58s):
Tim said team. He was very specific that Teamable would be acquired. That did not happen. buzzer.
Tim (6m 6s):
I actually recommend them quite a bit to people. And I've had multiple people reach out and go like, they're hard to get ahold of, bad business strategy. Somebody might've went and bought them, but nobody picking up.
Chad (6m 20s):
Yeah. It really sucked not just for acquisitions, but also just for the little thing we call revenue.
Joel (6m 26s):
Yeah. Maybe that's just a response on how bad the leads. Tim, maybe Tim's leads are a bunch of cheap asses who don't buy and just kick tires. So they're like, we don't want any more Tim leads.
Chad (6m 40s):
So then Joel said that Recruit Holdings would by ZipRecruiter did not happen. Buzzer. And then I crowdsourced my last predictions overall, Tom Kenny said, AI bites everyone in the ass, black. And, and I think he gets an applause on this because we saw AI move the needle from black box and to more of a transparency model. Dennis Tupper was on board with Joel's prediction that didn't happen. Google for Jobs starts monetizing. Buzzer. And then Richard Collins, believe it or not, I can't believe this didn't happen he said a major job board goes bust.
Chad (7m 24s):
And this year, I guess we could probably say Dice, but we weren't sure if that was a major job board or not so that don't even make the requirement.
Joel (7m 33s):
No one in Sweden knows who they are. So they're really not a major job board.
Chad (7m 38s):
So that was last year. We got a couple of them, which is much better than we did the year before. We'll go ahead and before we go to break and we get into this year's Steven Rothberg, who was Joel's favorite listener. He had a prediction that...
Joel (7m 54s):
Love you Steven.
Chad (7m 56s):
That obviously in-person conferences would not come back into Q4 and they definitely would not come back at the size and strength that they were in 2019. Let's talk about that after.
Joel (8m 9s):
So his bold prediction is vaccine is released, but we still don't go to conferences. Yeah. All right, we'll be right back. Everybody.
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Chad (9m 21s):
The first prediction comes from our listener, Steven Rothberg. I would say probably our number one listener might be him. Not sure, not sure.
Joel (9m 31s):
Gauntlet to the competition.
Chad (9m 32s):
His prediction was, we will start to see the return of in-person conferences by Q4, but attendance will remain low due to the long lead time. They required a plan and market. Everybody wants to get the hell out of the house. They want to go to conferences. That vaccine is getting rolled out. Do we all believe that in Q4 conferences, aren't just going to explode. Steven doesn't believe that. What do you guys think?
Joel (9m 57s):
I'll let our special guest start.
Tim (9m 59s):
No, I like, I think because, you know, Sherm has already come out and said, Hey, Sherm National Chicago in June. That, I mean, that's the biggest conference out there in our space. And they're already said like, Hey, we're going to do it now. And we all have obviously multiple opinions on the SHERM leadership. The one thing that they've been known is that I truly believe that they're going to try to pull this thing off. If they pull it off, you're just going to see everybody else. And we know that conference season starts in September, so that's Q3. So I would say that's, you know, we're, we're definitely going to see that happening, come Q3. Now, will the numbers be as big? I don't think so. Cause I think a lot of people will stay home, but I still think they're going to start trying to do them.
Chad (10m 42s):
I think it's going to be a vendor sausage party, what it's going to be, because you're going to be the only ones who are looking for leads. They're hungry for leads. Everybody wants to get out. But the problem is I don't believe talent acquisition or at least the people I've talked to are even going to be budgeting for travel this year for conferences.
Joel (11m 3s):
Yeah. I think June is really early.
Chad (11m 5s):
Tim (11m 6s):
Yeah. It seems early.
Joel (11m 7s):
I think they're setting themselves up for failure. I think the real test will be in the fall when HR tech and Unleashed in Paris and some of those conferences happen. I personally think that the big ones will, you know, will survive and sort of probably thrive as we come out of this. I think my question will be, you know, the EREs, the SourceCons, the TA Techs, the sort of the smaller ones where this is, all they do is, are these conferences and they don't exist without the revenue from them. And I'm curious as to whether those smaller niche conferences will evolve into sort of the corporate conferences, which I think have been gaining in popularity for the last five, 10 years, right?
Joel (11m 48s):
Like everybody wants to go to LinkedIn's conference and now it's, now it's more, I want to go to Smart Recruiter's, or I want to go to Jobvite. Or I want to go to SmashFly or Symphony Talent. You know, they've been, they've gotten really good at the sort of niche conference. So I think the big ones come back in a big way. I think they have the resources and power to do it. I think the corporate conferences gain in strength as we come out of this because they didn't rely on conferences for revenue. The real question for me is the, the small niche standalone conferences, like the Source Cons and those guys
Chad (12m 21s):
Do we see consolidation in this space?
Joel (12m 24s):
Tim (12m 25s):
Joel (12m 26s):
I don't know what assets they have that the big guys don't. The lists are probably the same. I mean this, the sales calls and who they're calling are the same. So I don't know.
Tim (12m 35s):
Well, I think 2020 proved out to like the virtual conference thing now isn't necessarily, I mean, here's the hard part, is it? Didn't the people who put them on don't make money. The vendors I talked to actually like them because the number of attendees, the lead generation has been huge. But the reality is, is you're not going to see those continue because the vendors weren't willing to pay the money as they were on the in-person stuff. Now that changed over and they were like, Hey, for a 5,000 person list, I'll pay X. Then maybe that would work. But like, we are all in the same stuff. Like we saw that, like we were, we actually spoke at a lot of these virtual conferences and the numbers were giant, but nobody was paying anything to be there, attendee or vendor.
Joel (13m 16s):
Be curious. I'm sure the marketing people liked it, but I wonder how many sales guys and gals said, Oh, these are really quality leads and I closed a lot of deals. Whereas I think the value of the face-to-face is you can build a little bit of relationship. You can, you know, buy drinks and meals, which you can't do via, you know, email marketing. Yeah.
Chad (13m 35s):
Yeah. And I think that any of these conference companies who understand, obviously there's a huge difference between in person and the online, the virtual, but there, there is that lead generation piece that Tim talked about. If we're not just doing PowerPoints and just the same old bullshit, we're actually providing premium content, those guys will win. So I think Jamie in the Recfest crew over there, those guys actually put out awesome premier content and they were experimenting with things, where at other conferences, they weren't as much, they were just trying to keep it as, you know, same as it ever was.