What could be better than predictions for the New Year by Chad & Cheese? How about those two being joined by industry veteran Tim Sackett? Well, your wish is our command.
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Announcer: Hide your kids, lock the doors, you're listening to HR's most dangerous podcast. Chad Sowash and Joel Cheesman are here to punch the recruiting industry right where it hurts. Complete with breaking news, brash opinion and loads of snark, buckle up boys and girls. It's time for the Chad and Cheese Podcast.
Joel: Merry New Year boys and girls. Welcome to the Chad and Cheese Podcast, HR's most dangerous, but today way more charming as we welcome Tim Nutsacket to our show this week we break down last year's predictions, look at next year's predictions and probably talk sports and beer and some other shit. Nurse that hangover, 'cause it's about to get intoxicating right after this word from JobAdX.
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Joel: Tim I pronounced your last name correctly in the opening, right?
Tim: Oh Nutsacket.
Joel: Welcome back, Tim, It's been a year.
Tim: I know and I can't tell you, I mean I've heard from tens of people that've listened to your podcast that are like, "Oh my gosh I can't believe that you're gonna be on the most dangerous HR podcast ever, which is so sad.
Joel: To highlight you said tens, right?
Joel: We have way more listeners than we thought, Jeff.
Chad: Yeah I know it's pretty awesome. I know we've got like ... But most are our family though, right?
Joel: Yeah. Well Tim welcome to the show, man. New listeners won't know that you were on our year end show or year beginning show last year, to go through predictions. You were star of one of our most popular podcasts last year which was the indeed jail podcast.
Tim: Going to jail.
Joel: So it's always a treat.
Tim: I mean right, I've gotten more content out of Indeed putting me in jail for the year and then deciding to screw over every staffing firm, it just keeps clicking away. Love it.
Joel: You and Chad have made a career out of fucking Indeed, it's great.
Tim: That's just 'cause they love fucking everybody else, so I mean it's fair play, bub.
Joel: And they stole your Christmas sweater idea.
Tim: Sons of bitches. You guys had a great Christmas sweater.
Joel: Dude. That's all Chad, man. I don't want any credit for that.
Chad: You're not gonna get any credit because it was my idea, you thought it was dumb and everybody else is like, "That is the shit." I'm like, "I know it's the shit."
Tim: I just wanna know how far ahead of time do you have to think about that to get it to China to have some seven year old kid make it, like it's ... That'd have to be at least nine months.
Chad: It's made in Germany, man, and it actually took about eight weeks, yeah.
Joel: The country that gave us Claudia Schiffer also gave us that God awful sweater.
Chad: It's fuckin' awesome, dude. I love it.
Chad: Let's talk about 2018 predictions, where we came out, and first and foremost I'd like to say that I was wrong because Saquon Barkley was a hit but Ed in Philly, shut up Penn State still sucks.
Chad: Cleveland took Mayfield, which Joel was wrong and I was right because the
Browns, they love the bad boy. But he's not doin' too bad right now, is he?
Joel: I'm warming up to him. Little by little.
Chad: At the end of the day in 2018 we all agree Michigan still sucks, so ...
Joel: Amen to that.
Chad: So those were kind of like the pre not talent predictions.
Joel: Did we really talk like draft predictions on last year's show?
Chad: Yeah we did, we did, we talked a little bit about draft predictions and who we thought was going to kick ass and take names.
Tim: What do you guys think about the process of all these kids not playing in ball game?
Joel: Don't like it, but totally get it. I do think you have to be a top ten to 15 player to do it, though. So my wife is a West Virginia grad and Will Grier is arguably a top five quarterback in the draft. He's projected to go second or third round. He has said, "I'm not gonna play in the game." To me he should play, 'cause he could light up whoever and maybe even move up into a first rounder, but I think you shouldn't do it unless you're like a top ten or 15 pick.
Tim: Yeah, Michigan State's got a quarterback that literally is like he might be a six or seventh round or even not get drafted, he's not playing and you wanna go, "I don't know if you're helping yourself."
Chad: There's a risk reward there, right? In that case, that's all about reward. I really don't see a risk there, but my pick for this year where it's around the same thing but Nick Bosa, he went out early in the season with an injury and he decided not to come back but here's my prediction. I still think he's gonna go top five picks because he dominated every game he was in and genetics, big guys, his dad played in the NFL and his brother is tearin' the shit out of offensive lines right now.
Joel: This is how Chad does his predictions, like he looks at every mock draft that has Bosa as a top five pick and then he comes on the show and goes, "I think he's gonna be a top five pick, that's my prediction." Like that's such a bold pick, every expert has him top five and now Chad has him top five.
Chad: I didn't look at anything.
Joel: Way to put yourself out there, Chad.
Tim: I'm gonna put one out there. Duke's gonna win the NCA tournament.
Chad: That's a good one. I like that one.
Joel: That's a good one like would you take Duke over the field?
Tim: Oh God yeah. I would take Duke over the field right now in a heartbeat.
Joel: I'll go sports. Jim Harbaugh is not the coach of Michigan next year.
Joel: It goes to the pros.
Tim: That's a good one though, I like that.
Joel: And potentially Cleveland is in the Catbird seat for his services. I think he's either in Cleveland or Green Bay.
Tim: Did Ohio state make the right decision?
Chad: Which one?
Joel: Meaning what?
Tim: Just moving the guy up.
Chad: I think he did a good job for the first part of the season, first four games. So yeah and he's in the system so yeah I think he was the logical step.
Joel: He's on a short leash. I mean Ohio State's too big of a job just to like put the next guy in line. Someone bigger will come along.
Chad: We'll see.
Joel: Let's get to recruiting predictions and review last year's brilliant commentary that we had.
Chad: Okay, so the first one, Tim, was sourcing is dead in 2018. Which I'm going to say not so fast, not so fast, there was a lot of talking about it but that didn't quite happen. What do you think about that, Tim?
Tim: I still think when you take a look at kind of the evolution of sourcing tech that the run of the mill sourcing sourcer that has to go out the right balloon strings and stuff, like that job's gone away. You don't need that anymore.
Chad: So you feel like it's good.
Tim: I thought the prediction was pretty good, I mean ...
Joel: Alright. The judges disagree.
Chad: So that being said, I was just about on the same bandwagon. I was more on the RPA process side of the house and I thought that that would pretty much be a standard in all the process in 2018 and that's just not the case, so yeah I was wrong there. And Joel predicted Glassdoor goes public, which did not happen.
Joel: But they would have, had they not been acquired.
Chad: Did not happen.
Tim: Doesn't matter if it would have.
Chad: It did not happen.
Chad: Second round, Tim said, "Employee referral automation gains adoption." I think that one goes into the category of who gives a fuck.
Tim: When you take a look, still, it didn't and I could put that on the list this year too 'cause I still think it's like the highest ROI most underutilized recruiting tech on the market and I still don't [crosstalk 00:09:02]
Chad: Which is why they won't do it.
Tim: Yeah. I don't get it. If people think they can do it for free, they're like, "We have a referral program, it's on the wall in the lunchroom we'll go look at it."
Tim: That shit doesn't work.
Chad: So my second pick which incredibly bold, CareerBuilder and Monster start surging back.
Tim: It would have been better if you had said CareerBuilder and Monster merged.
Joel: Key word there is start. Like you could argue that they started, didn't quite get there.
Chad: Yeah, I think I mean CareerBuilder gave us a lot to talk about this year. They were dramatic changes, El Chapo ...
Joel: They were the gift that kept on giving in 2018.
Chad: Oh my God. Monster really didn't do much of anything, right? So it was a
difference between there was a lot of stupid shit happening versus not much happening at all, so I mean there was a start of something but I sure don't know what the fuck that was.
Tim: Well no, Monster announced the whole video studio thing, right? That was really cool but then it wasn't actually available.
Chad: Once again I don't know that they don't ...
Joel: Don't forget augmented reality like CareerBuilder.
Chad: Then Joel's was Amazon buys Slack which again didn't happen. Man, we are not doing well here, guys. The last one for Tim, college degrees are dead. I'm gonna get behind Tim on this one. I believe that we actually, at least the starting of this was happening just because of the talent shortage, companies really started to look at getting rid of these really, the requirements for a college degree when, in fact, you don't need a goddamn college degree to do most of these jobs. I'm gonna give him a thumbs up on that one.
Chad: Take that.
Joel: I think if we do this show you know, ten years from now that might hold a little more weight. Or if you would've just said, "Alternatives to college start to take serious precedence in some organizations like that would be good, but just to outright say, "College degrees are dead." Was a pretty bold prediction.
Chad: He was being very bold.
Chad: Not so bold prediction, the ATS is going to make a comeback, that was my
Joel: And we said before the show did they actually leave?
Chad: Although ... Yeah, but I mean they weren't really haven't done anything in the recruiting talent acquisition sides, it's all been background checks and onboarding shit. But we did get iCIMS spending cash for text recruit. They also had an infusion of cash, their vision is very aggressive I believe so I think we did see a vision from at least one of these applicant tracking systems that was aggressive on the talent acquisition recruiting side of the house.
Joel: Chad's being very charitable with the predictions from last year, but okay.
Chad: Yes I am. And then last but not least, Joel voice assistance comes to employment. Google Duplex isn't ready for Prime Time yet.
Tim: Siri, can you find me a developer worth?
Joel: We're like O eight and two. That's our record. We've got a couple ties and a lot of losses.
Chad: We're the fucking Cleveland Browns of this shit is what we are.
Tim: We're playing for our first round selection from 2008.
Joel: Very nice. And that is last year. We'll get into this year after this quick word from Sovren.
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Chad: See, and again, I'm gonna say that's the reason why AI and algorithms take over because they put sexy voices on 'em like that and there's nothing we can do.
Tim: Yeah, they come up with those like Russian names like it's Svetlana. Like here's our chat bot Svetlana.
Joel: There is no chat bot named Svetlana.
Tim: So great. Not yet. There will be now.
Chad: Adriana. So that being said, getting into 2019 predictions and as always we're gracious here at the Chad and Cheese podcast. We're allowing our guest to go first. So Tim, 2019 predictions.
Joel: Let's go.
Tim: As we know, you know we're gonna have a little bit of softening of the economy. We've already started to feel it with all these fourth quarter layoffs. So my prediction is is that assessment science and those vendor community out there will have a big year, it'll come back in a big way, we'll be talking more about the assessment science side. Basically because we got all in 2018 we just basically hired any warm body that would come through the door and now we can come back we can say, "Look, we don't need to hire any warm body with a hickey, we can actually hire real talented people and take our time lets put some money into that and let's upgrade the talent that we have." I don't think we'll see a bunch of layoffs, I think what we'll see is targeted kind of people getting shot 'cause they suck so bad, and then you're upgrading the talent within organizations.
Joel: I haven't heard the word hickey for about 15 years, so thank you for that,
Tim. And what is that ... Was that a warm body with a hickey, or a body with a warm hickey?
Tim: A warm body with a hickey because a cold body with a hickey is just that's just wrong.
Chad: Nobody wants that. You get boo'd for bringing that up, Cheesman. So there's been a good amount of money that's been poured into this area, the assessment area so yeah I think I could kind of get on board with that prediction.
Tim: It's kind of beyond I still think too many HR leaders, TA leaders are stuck in this kind of like, "Oh, we're doing the wonder lick or some stupid personality assessment." That's not kind of assessment science or 2018 2019. It's all kind of data driven and kind of really more sophisticated. The reality is that those things can pick people better than Harry or HR men or your supervisor and you know whatever.
Joel: Harry Hickey.
Tim: Harry Hickey, who is 20 year pro supervisor manufacturer that has no idea what he's doing. He just is basically picking somebody 'cause they came in with Lion shirt on versus a Packer shirt or something.
Chad: And that's bias, my friend and we won't have it.
Chad: We won't have it. Alright, Cheesman, you're first.
Joel: My turn. Okay. Mine is much more specific than this sort of gray ethos prediction that Tim makes.
Tim: That way in 2020 I can definitely say, "See? My prediction came true."
Joel: Yeah you've got the trumpification of predictions. Definitely can get out of that one in the future.
Joel: Okay, mine is that at least one of the following CEOs will not make it to
2020, meaning they will get fired. Those three will be Monster CEO Scott Gutz, DHI CEO Art
Zeile or CareerBuilder CEO Irina Svetlana Novoselsky.
Tim: Don't do that.
Joel: One of those three will be fired when we get together next year. At least
Tim: Okay, real quick let's do a Fuck Mary, Kill. Go ahead.
Chad: So Tim. So your pick.
Joel: Who can most survive the year and whose most likely gonna get canned?
Tim: So I mean I had personal conversations with each of these people in 2018. I've spent time with all of them, so I feel really bad about having to make that prediction of who would get shot first. I will say the Dice CEO. I just think their product is probably struggling. It has less name recognition than the CareerBuilder Monster stuff that who can still kind of get money from non suspecting TA leaders HR leaders.
Chad: Yeah. I'm with Tim, I think, and I'm not gonna be as nice, just because Art won't come on the fucking show and talk through it, but ...
Tim: Art's a good guy, I think he really believes in the company and the product, I just, you know.
Chad: Well yeah but he was at TA tech in New Orleans talking about onboarding and shit. I mean it's like what the fuck are you guys doing over there? Your product sucks but you wanna talk about down stream shit? I mean this doesn't make any sense whatsoever, so I'm not sure that they have the focus and yeah I just, from a product standpoint they haven't been able to keep up. So they would have to leap frog and I don't think that they have the resources to be able to do that, so I think Art's dead in the water. Scott's only been in the job for shit, five, six months.
Joel: Six months.
Chad: Yeah, and you know I think Randstad, yes they do focus heavily on margins and eBid and those types of things, but I think he's got a little bit more rope than Art does.
Joel: I'll zag a little bit from your zigging just for the sake of argument. I'd say Monster has the best chance of surviving. They've got a road map, they've got executives around he's got a team like ... I don't think Randstad is gonna pull the plug, I don't think they're gonna sell the company in the next year but I'll go ahead and say CareerBuilder will get axed. But more likely because they sell the company or just have a total sort of change of leadership and executives and all kinds of stuff but I don't think it'll be performance necessarily as opposed to just a major change in the company. I think her CFO background opposed to the tech background of the other two really lend itself to saying, "Sell it, chop it up." It doesn't really say, "Innovation and like new tomorrows." To me.
Chad: She's an Apollo person though, so I think if that happens she'll be moved out to another position somewhere else as opposed to just chopped and ejected out. So if that does happen, I mean she was moved in there from Apollo as an Apollo person, company woman, to be put into that slot.
Tim: She shows she's the one to make some tough calls, I mean, so she's definitely a strong leader. I don't know if that company, it doesn't matter who leads that company, I don't know if they're coming back, but I think I agree with Joel on that is that she'll probably move out to some place else.
Chad: Alright, so are we ready for more?
Joel: Alright brainiac.
Chad: Alright, so I'm going to springboard off of Tim's from last year because I think there's a good possibility of it happening this year is much better obviously than what happened in 2018.
Joel: So if this is like Tim's is it like water's wet or sky is blue?
Chad: Kind of. No, I'm gonna say Booleon is dead and candidate matching becomes standard in recruiting platforms 'cause I mean seriously, let's face it, recruiters are spending 7.4 seconds reviewing a single resume, which is stupid when an algorithm can review thousands of profiles in that same time frame and match qualified candidates to the requisitions. So platform vendors who wanna stay ahead of the talent acquisition ask or they're already moving in that direction anyway and they have been in 2018 and all those TA professionals who don't want their CHRO or their CEO to ask them, "Hey, what are we doing in AI or process automation?" They've already started doing due diligence or they have somebody doing it, it'll start to take place traction wise in 2019. So I think the matching piece is going to be a standard for companies.
Joel: So just to specify. You're not saying sourcing is dead, but you're just saying the process of Booleon searches are dead?
Joel: By human beings.
Chad: Yeah. It's gonna be done by an algorithm and all of that is gonna be taking place with platforms as opposed to people.
Joel: However Booleon in searches will forever work in google, just so you know.
Joel: Just throwing that out there.
Chad: Booleon for candidates.
Joel: Google will not kill a Booleon search train.
Chad: No, they are killing the Booleon search train. Did you see their candidate match API? It's already in Google Hire.
Joel: I'm talking literally you'll still always be able to put in a Booleon search in Google and click search.
Chad: We're talking about talent acquisition here.
Joel: I'm bein' a smartass, this is what we do on the show.
Chad: Oh, my bad, okay good job.
Chad: So that being said, I get to jump to my turn to go to my second prediction. That was a good one that Booleon is dead one. Number two. This is my softball prediction. Microsoft acquires Upwork. I think we can all agree. Tell me if if I'm wrong, that the world of work is changing, especially with the way that the landscape is when it comes to hiring and Microsoft could definitely bridge a huge talent shortage gap by providing individuals who can pretty much knock out products, freelancers, projects, all that other happy horse shit. Instead of doing FTE stuff they could do it through Upwork and then linking it into LinkedIn. So being able to utilize LinkedIn, what do they have like six hundred million profiles or some shit like that?
Chad: Being able to add those freelancers into the mix and then start to introduce the world of freelancers in Upwork to their millions of clients I think is smart. Not to mention you know I think they're already doing that with a partnership. I think this is just a trickle until they get acquired.
Joel: Don't forget GitHub.
Tim: So Chad's prediction is LinkedIn becomes the largest staffing vendor in the world?
Chad: Not yet. That'll happen in 2020 or 21, but first it's baby steps Tim. You've gotta acquire.
Tim: You've gotta build it. Build the machine.
Joel: My question is okay, let's assume that Upwork does get acquired. Do you predict others will be vying for their platform as well and if so, who? Do you think this means that someone like a Fiverr or an Upwork competitor also gets acquired?
Chad: Yeah, that's a great question because I think, well first off the first question, I think Upwork is already kind of in the courting phase with Microsoft to go through the whole acquisition piece, that just ... My feeling. I think that that is probably just about done. But yes, when that happens the fibers and all the other platforms that are out there I think obviously their value goes up and then you have all these other lifestyle types of organizations who are looking to perspectively pull them in to their suites.
Joel: So you don't think like an Indeed gets into freelancing or ZipRecruiter?
Chad: Not unless they buy into it.
Joel: Tim? No, okay.
Tim: I don't think so.
Joel: Fair enough.