It's January. And you know what that means: Predictions for the New Year. Joining Chad & Cheese this week is long time predictor and industry icon Tim Sackett. What's in store for Indeed, Monster, LinkedIn, ZipRecruiter and more?
You just gotta listen. You'll also find out how the boys did in their 2019 predictions (hint: THEY SUCK).
Enjoy this Sovren, JobAdx and Canvas sponsored goodness.
PODCAST TRANSCRIPTION sponsored by:
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Intro: Hide your kids, lock the doors. You're listening to HR's most dangerous podcast. Chad Sowash and Joel Cheesman are here to punch the recruiting industry right where it hurts. Complete with breaking news, brash opinion and loads of snark. Buckle up, boys and girls, it's time for the Chad and Cheese Podcast.
Joel: Oh yeah. It's a new year. What's up Chad?
Chad: Another day in paradise, man, I'm just back from Cleveland. Aw shit.
Joel: Hello Cleveland and hello Tim Sackett, our special guest.
Tim: What's going on boys?
Joel: You ready to do some predictions?
Tim: Sackadomis is here.
Joel: It's a sack attack for 2020 baby.
Tim: I'm right off the boat from Cayman islands. I've got my Speedo on. I'm ready to go. I shaved my chest like a man.
Joel: J Lo and A Rod are on the bow side. Let's pay some bills, and we'll get to our 2019 rehash and go into our 2020 predictions. Gang, we'll be right back.
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Chad: I already know what this episode is going to be called. Teabagging 2020.
Tim: There we go. Right off the bat,
Chad: Right off the bat.
Tim: We're the audience.
Chad: Thinking of you in a Speedo. Come on. What else could we call it?
Tim: Yep. You and your wife both.
Chad: I don't know how I'm going to get that out of my brain because it's so lovely.
Joel: Tim we haven't talked to you. How was your holiday?
Tim: It was tremendous. I literally sat on the beach for a week and drank frozen drinks and had a [crosstalk 00:02:16] wonderful time.
Joel: You left the beautiful scape of Kalamazoo for beaches and drinks with umbrellas.
Tim: The grayness of Detroit and just went South.
Joel: I can't hate on that.
Chad: I can't hate that on that at all, and then we, what do we do? We get in the car the first thing out of January and we drive to Cleveland.
Joel: Which was beautiful by the way
Chad: It was pretty nice.
Joel: Which is pretty much beautiful for Cleveland. There's no snow in January, so it's lovely.
Chad: Yeah, and all we had to do is listen to sports talk-radio on the way. Listening to guys with these stupid predictions about who's going to be the Cleveland coach. It was fucking ridiculous.
Tim: I still think Baker can be our guy. I love Baker.
Joel: I still think we can get Belichick. I think we can do it. We can get Belichick and McDaniel and Tom Brady for next year.
Tim: You trade Baker for Belichick and Brady and then that's straight up. And your first round 2024.
Chad: All we need to do is make sure that we get Giselle a heated driveway. That's all we need to do. There won't be snow in their driveway. They'll be happy. It's like these guys are coming up with some of the shit.
Joel: That was literally part of the discussion. Tim, when Butch Davis moved there from Florida they bought a heated driveway so his wife wouldn't have to shovel snow.
Tim: By the way. I want that now. I'm calling somebody right now. I'm like, "Wait a minute. How do I get one of those?"
Chad: By the way, just so you know, there's snow that goes beyond the driveway that you still have to fucking drive in dumb asses. Oh yea, just don't want us to plow the snow first and foremost. If you make that much money, you don't shovel fucking snow.
Chad: Ever. So that being said. [crosstalk 00:04:03] We want to jump into the 2019 predictions, and the first thing we talked about, I thought it was funny that Tim asked if this new guy at Ohio State was the right choice. Joel said that he didn't think so, and that a bigger name would actually come along. And I thought he deserved the up. They killed it last year and the guy was under Urban long enough. I thought Ryan Day would kick ass and take names.
Tim: But he lost, he lost a big game. He's not even in the National Championship game.
Joel: Coaching clearly lost it.
Chad: Not to Michigan state, he didn't.
Tim: No. So he's probably on the hot seat I would be guessing, down in Columbus.
Joel: I would say no, not after his first year. I'd say he's okay. So let's jump through with... Tim had the first, and we'll go again with Tim this year, but he said with the softening of the economy, he thought assessment science would be big in 2019.
Tim: Man, still on that.
Joel: Yeah, I don't know about that. I think assessment science and facial recognition got kicked in the nuts by [crosstalk 00:05:16].
Sound effect: "Game over, man! Game over!"
Chad: I'm still a believer.
Joel: Still a believer. Don't stop believing.
Chad: So, Joel's first prediction was one of these CEOs get fired either Monster's, Scott Gutz, Dice's, Art Zeile or Irina at CareerBuilder. They are all still in the [crosstalk 00:05:43].
Joel: I'm not sure that today we've confirmed Irina is still there. I still might be right on that prediction.
Tim: Let's say, everyone's still on the hot seat.
Joel: And by the way, everyone but Scott Gutz is gone at Monster, [crosstalk 00:05:56]. So I was really close on that one [crosstalk 00:05:58].
Chad: Yeah you were close, yeah.
Joel: But ultimately-
Tim: He got out in front of it and fired everybody else. Got the board to give him another year.
Chad: My first prediction was that the "candidate matching" becomes standard.
Tim: That's, that's a big no. Yeah. Oh, Lillian is still alive, unfortunately, and for some reason "candidate matching" is not something that has been received by the core platform.
Joel: We suck at this guys.
Tim: Yeah, I know. I can't wait to do our 2020.
Chad: I'm still a big believer in that "candidate matching".
Tim: I am too. I really am, but still.
Chad: My second pick was Microsoft acquires Upwards.
Tim: Yes. Oh, wait.
Chad: Joel's second prediction was ZipRecruiter files for IPO, which means you can't use that this year, Joel.
Joel: Yeah, I'm going to be earlier than that one. It'll be this year.
Chad: Tim's next was the consolidation of the event space. There's too much conference event going on. [crosstalk 00:06:53] Shit's got to consolidate.
Tim: It seems like every, it just got bigger. It got bigger.
Chad: Pretty much every idiot in the world now thinks they can run a conference. It's like "I have a conference tomorrow in my office. It's me and like five people that work for me".
Tim: You don't know how many people say, Oh, "Chad and Cheese. You should have your own conference".
Chad: You can just go fuck off. How about no?
Tim: "The Chad and Cheese Conference at the Olympia Club in Vegas".
Joel: That conference is poolside at Hooters in Vegas.
Tim: Spearmint Rhino.
Joel: $20 door fee for the K.
Chad: The last productions: Joel said LinkedIn wins against hiQ.
Joel: Jury's still out because it's going to the Supreme Court this year.
Tim: God damn it. Yeah. I don't think Supreme court's actually going to take it.
Chad: My last prediction was Google For Jobs displaces Indeed as the number one source for candidate traffic and a caveat Jobiak gets acquired. Neither one of those happened. And last but not least, Tim came up with this out of left fucking field. Gen Z consulting explodes.
Tim: Definitely. Oh wait, no, I saw a 90 year old woman at the last conference. She was a Gen Z consultant.
Joel: Does that count as exploding?
Tim: I'm going to go with "no".
Joel: So no explosion. [crosstalk 00:08:22] 2020 can't get any worse, that's the good news.
Tim: I'm very excited about our predictions for 2020 I think we should think a little bit harder about them during this next commercial break to see if we might want to change them at all.
Joel: Let's take a break and we'll get to 2020.
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Chad: I can't not dance when that commercial comes on just because of the background music.
Joel: I want to know how many Bitmojis Tim is fired off this morning alone.
Tim: I can tell you what my Canvas Bitmoji is on point! Little red hair, spiky-
Joel: That shit's on fleek!
Chad: Oh, you're going to explain that one to the kids. All right, so as we like to do here on the show, we like to, first and foremost, push our guests out into the spotlight and allow Mr. Sackett to do the first prediction because we like to make fun of him first.
Joel: Yeah. This is the middle-school dance where we throw Tim out to the dance floor and let him start the party.
Tim: By the way, on my IG stories, when I was in Cayman, I'd have a little dancey on the bow of a boat and let's just say alcohol was involved.
Chad: Cayman's. Alcohol. Boat.
Tim: Well, no a Speedo, but you know.
Chad: Naked groups!
Tim: So my first one, and this is hard for me because I know we have such a personal kind of strong relationship between Indeed and I. So I think, Indeed is going to cut-
Joel: In jail.
Tim: Indeed is going to cut free organic traffic to the UK staffing vendors just like they did to the U S staffing vendors in 2019. 2020 UK get ready! Take one.
Joel: So Indeed peeps sticking it to everybody in 2020.
Tim: Hey, it's business, right?
Joel: It's for the quality of our users, Tim.
Tim: What they found out was, if you actually cut that free traffic to staffing firms, turns out staffing firms will actually pay to get it back. And so, it's not really about search quality, it's about "will you pay?" All that stuff.
Chad: Yes. Yeah.
Tim: So they're going to continue.
Joel: Here's my Indeed prediction. We all get a stuffy of the new Indeed groundhog this year as a "we love you".
Tim: I can tell you I won't.
Chad: Yeah, no you will. You will because Chad and cheese are going to be dedicated this year to actually having an Indeed groundhog with us on the stage.
Joel: We're working the hottest sponsorship of 2020 with the Indeed groundhog. You just wait, buddy.
Tim: Are you guys going to meet you in live Chad and Cheese for interactive?
Chad: Oh yeah. I don't see that happening. I could see that happening so yes, I I'm surprised. I'm surprised that staffing companies in the UK will be surprised and caught off guard when the rug is yanked out from underneath them when they are forced to actually pay for traffic.
Tim: Because the U.S. ones are still surprised. I still get U.S. staffing people calling me, asking me if I figured out how to get the free stuff back and I'm just like "never coming back".
Chad: Dude, they're making more money because what they did was get you on the heroin drip and then they ripped out the heroin from underneath your feet and then guess what? Charged a shit ton of cash for it. That's how they work it.
Sound effect: "Game over, man! Game over!"
Tim: Hey, by the way I'll say this: Indeed still works. We still pay for it for some things. We still sponsor some things. I'm not saying that it doesn't work, I'm just saying I wasn't happy to have to pay for it.
Joel: I hate paying for results and money.
Tim: It turns out really good recruitment, marketing, cost of money.
Joel: Is it my turn?
Chad: Finally, let's go.
Joel: All right, so I got to start with Google and get progressively worse on my predictions. I'm definitely committed to rehashing last year and not getting any of these things right. So let's roll the dice. I'm going to predict Google For Jobs monetizes this year specifically they unveil a pay-per-click model where people can highlight jobs, get them positioning on searches, et cetera. But yeah, Google starts raking in the dough. And I also think to rehash Chad's from last year, that traffic continues to march on and what the hell they surpass Indeed for a lot of companies in terms of referrals for candidates. So Google For Jobs has a big year and starts making bank in 2020.
Tim: We saw for iCIMs clients that Google For Jobs is the number three traffic source happening in 2019 so that-
Joel: Yeah, I mean they, they leapfrog from like five or six to number three.
Tim: I think it was sixth.
Joel: Yeah. So it's going to continue to be good for Google and bad for everybody else.
Tim: Well Joel, with that do you see Google shutting down indexing Glassdoor to kind of push that even farther?
Joel: The reviews or the jobs?
Tim: Because that's how they basically shut down Indeed, right?
Joel: Indeed chose not to be indexed. It wasn't Google.
Chad: Dude, if they do that, if you've got, you've got to think of the antitrust ramifications around that. Google has to play on a level playing field with little piss ants like Indeed.
Joel: The question should be, "does Glassdoor shut off feeding jobs into Google?"
Joel: I would say "no". Most of the reports I hear are that Indeed is duplicating jobs onto Glassdoor and then posting them on Google For Jobs there and just standing firm on the "no Indeed", but getting through the back door with Glassdoor. So no, I do not believe glass door will shut off the spicket. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Indeed acquiesces and says, "fuck it. We're going to put our jobs on Google For Jobs too".
Chad: Boom. All right, prediction number one, I'm going to say, so they're going to be multiple chatbot acquisitions this year. So this year at CES, a new tech firm out from STAR, the actual Samsung Technology and Advancement Research labs called Neon demonstrated their chatbot, also called Neon, which is a humanistic type of a chatbot. So it's kind of like 10guy to an extent, but onscreen with real people. This tech puts deep fakes to shame.
Chad: Imagine having a rendering of your CEO interviewing every single candidate that walks through the door or interviews remotely, or maybe just staff members. Imagine renderings of them doing the same thing. Now from my standpoint, this is what I said in our Naughty and Nice podcast. 10guy and this type of technology pushes more adoption for everything behind it, right? So this is going way out on a limb. It's incredibly cool. But companies are going to be, "wait a minute, I don't want to go that far".
Chad: Not going that far is a chatbot is just your regular traditional can-do-a-hell-of-a-lot-of-shit-chatbots. Right? And I see companies going through and there will be multiple acquisitions. This is the year that dominoes start to fall. The acquisition dominoes start to fall for chatbots.
Joel: Some I'm going to throw in my 2 cents and say that Maya is the first to go and it's for a 100 million plus dollar price tag.
Chad: And that's big. I think that Maya has to go for more than that because they've taken what, 30 million-ish or so? So I think they're going to have to go for more than that. But I do think that again, this conversation is going at Moore's Law speed and that is pretty fucking amazing.
Tim: My 2 cents is Tengai is going to invite me to Sweden and take me skiing, because you guys didn't get to go skiing.
Joel: That would be an awesome viral video by the way. Put some skis on that thing and roll it down the hill.
Tim: I'll just carry her right in my arms. It's like me and Elin going down shooshin with Tengai. Let's do it. Hook that up!
Chad: You can't even pronounce the robot's name right. They're not bringing you to Sweden.
Tim: I don't speak Swedish, sorry. Here's the thing, Chad. If I would have gotten invited to Sweden, I would pronounce that thing correctly.
Chad: All right. All right. All right. We're moving on to prediction number two and I get to start this. I get to start this round off. I'm going go pretty bold and it's not really that bold. ICMs acquires a programmatic company. In 2019 we saw the rise of programmatic with TMP, Symphony KRT, Recruitics, Indeed StepStone. They all have their own programmatic solutions. I see that spanning to core applicant tracking systems.
Chad: We've also talked to ICMs and talked to Collin and really, I mean a lot of the leadership there and programmatic was a part of the conversation and they're looking intently at programmatic organizations and there are still plenty, not a ton, but plenty of programmatic organizations that are out there or at least companies that have programmatic tech. Next, JobADx, Recruitology, Joveo, Pandologic, VONQ. And that's probably half of them.
Joel: And that's your bold prediction. Who doesn't own a programmatic solution by the end of 2020?
Chad: First off, I don't know if you were here during the 2019; I'm trying to play it safe so I actually get one of these fucking things right this year.
Joel: That was as bold as; remember the one where you're like "Monster and CareerBuilder make a comeback". That was our first show.
Tim: It was, yeah.
Chad: It was. And neither one of [crosstalk 00:19:02] I mean, what the fuck do you want to me?
Joel: Fair enough. The need to get one of these things right is fine. So ICMS buys... somebody.
Chad: A programmatic. Yeah.
Joel: With that, I'll say that with my second prediction that Monster gets sold. I think Ron Stott is tired of it's turkey. I think that there's no growth. They've laid off everyone, almost everyone that's important. I just think they're going to get out of the job board business. They're going to go; they're going to call up Indeed or ZipRecruiter or whoever and say, "what do you give us for this dog pile of shit? and Monster is no longer a Ron Stott property at the beginning of 2021.
Tim: Hey, the three of us might be able to put enough money together and just take it.
Chad: That's a good point. I've got a buck 50. I've got a buck 50. I think it's interesting that we just learned that at the end of last year they shut down their betterthing.com app and that technology I think is pretty revolutionary for CDL and obviously the logistics and drivers. But yeah, if they can't make something like that work because they're not putting enough focus and priority around this new type of tech to be able to grow it and the perspectively widen up the bounds on it. Not just logistics, not just trucking but also nursing and so on and so forth. If they don't have the leadership and the vision to be able to understand what is a good fucking piece of tech and what they could build a future business off of, they deserve to fucking go down.
Joel: I'm just waiting for their Instagram for jobs revolutionary product. I've been hearing about that for two fucking years.
Tim: I will say the Monster Studio thing is brilliant. We know video job description; you're getting way more interaction, way more traffic, way more applies.
Chad: Dude. They don't own it. They don't own it. It's not their shit.
Tim: But it is really good.
Chad: Well it is good! Thank the Australians for that shit. Thank VideoMyJob. Monster has nothing to do with that being a good product. All they did was put it on their back and carry it and say, buy this, and they're getting us a margin off of it. They're not building tech.
Tim: You try to make video job descriptions easy. It built into a platform. That's the hard part, right, so whatever.
Joel: Subset prediction: VideoMyJob acquires Monster. There you go.
Chad: Very nice. All right, Tim, I think we're on your number two right?
Tim: I'm going to go... I'm going to save my best one for last. I'm going to double down on last year's and say we're going to see the end of human-to-human interviewing as we know it in 2020 because of unconscious bias, because humans just suck at interviewing. Modern assessment science. It's machine learning and AI, especially at volume. There's no possible way ever I would allow a hiring manager... If I ran Walmart and I'm hiring $10 an hour people, no human would ever interview another $10 an hour hire the rest of my entire existence in this world.
Tim: The tech can do it way better, way more efficiently than we can as humans. In 2021 I'm going to come back with a great high vine example of this is working out well.
Joel: But you're calling for an across the board no face-to-face interviews ever at the by the end of this year.
Tim: For high volume hourly hiring. Okay. All right. Let's get that. Let's get that.
Chad: What he's really doing is he's putting a stake in the ground saying he wants to go to Sweden.
Joel: He's making a bold prediction.
Tim: I'm just saying if some certain company in Sweden would have me out skiing, you might be able to turn this thing up in 2020.
Joel: We get it, man, just buy a ticket.
Chad: Yeah. Jesus.
Tim: You've got money, brah.
Chad: I'm sure. I'm sure. I'm sure they'd love to have you.
Joel: And speaking of money, let's take a quick break to pay some bills and we'll come back with our final three predictions.
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Chad: Oh he's a big fan of the JobAdX ads because I know I can take a piss break.
Tim: Because you like to make a fake laugh going on
[crosstalk 00:25:00] .
Joel: That fast, huh?
Chad: Oh okay. So we're starting this round off with Tim. This is your last one Tim so make it count.
Tim: This one for sure will be measurable. This is a black or white, going to have it or not. So I'm a huge fan of employee referral technology on like Rolepoint, like Jobvite. This year my prediction is going to be Teamable which has employee referral technology is going to be purchased by enterprise HCM vendor. I will say it's going to be Workday. And I say that because if you've been to T-Mobile site lately, it's kind of like the lights are on but no one's home. Like they hadn't updated their social profiles in like three months. They have that an old VP of sales still listed. And I know they're out of our media is like the main people that they probably don't even understand that if I hire some people in San Francisco that stopped showing up to the office three months ago, but they suck at marketing and sales, but their product or technology is super good and I think it's an easy buy for an HCM vendor. It has that [crosstalk 00:26:17] got a recruiting platform.
Joel: That's a solid, put-your-Sackett-out-there and make a prediction. I like that. Referral engagement continues to be hot. Someone's got to start buying these companies eventually.
Chad: Right to your point, last year, Jobvite, you know the whole point in Teamable... who's going to go out there and buy the ghostship of Teamable? That's the question.
Tim: So Workday has their whole investment thing where they throw some money at them and then they bring them into the fold and make it like a quick little easy integration. I think that's the play. Workday says, "Hey, here's 5 million, can you actually hire someone that knows how to market?" and then you know, boom, it goes big.
Joel: And then you're ours. I like it. I like it. All right. I'm going to go with the acquisition trend here as well. With my third and last prediction of the year, I believe in contrast to my prediction from last year, that Zip goes IPO. I think recruit holdings backs up the Brinks truck and buys ZipRecruiter and hopes of creating a triumphant defense against Google For Jobs and Indeed Glassdoor and ZipRecruiter. So to 2020 Recruit Holdings buys ZipRecruiter and owns Glassdoor.
Tim: God, I hope that doesn't happen.
Chad: Oh, I hate that idea.
Joel: Really? Why?
Chad: I mean Zip by far is the best job board on the market right now. They're just killing it. They're cost effective. The traffic is great across the board.
Chad: They're doing really, really good and I think partly because they could't care less about what's going on in the industry. They really focus in on their tech and so if Recruit comes in and buys them, I could just see that thing be a trainwreck. Oh, go IPO.
Joel: Or you want to predict IPO, Tim?
Tim: Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure.
Chad: Yeah. I think Zip definitely can give the Indeeds of the world a run for their money too. To be able to see that brand get sucked up by Indeed I think would again would create hopefully a vacuum where somebody else would step up, but I just don't see that in this industry. I'd hate to see Zip pulled in by Recruit.
Joel: Well, we probably all agree that with the amount of money that Zip has taken, they've got to do one of the two eventually.
Chad: Oh yeah.
Joel: And this should be the year that they do it.
Chad: Hoping for the IPO side of the house.
Tim: By the way, I think you guys are the only podcast that doesn't have a commercial arm in the history of all podcasts.
Joel: At this point, we're not going to take her money just for pride.
Chad: We'll never hear a ZipRecruiter ad on this show. I mean we're putting a stake in the ground by the way.
Tim: Ziprecruiter, call me at (517) 644-5014. You can own my brand.
Chad: He'll sell out to anyone.
Joel: As long as you throw in a ticket to Sweden. He's all yours.
Tim: That's exactly right.
Chad: All right, last one. Geez. Okay, so I actually crowd sourced my last prediction because I thought that our listeners and people that we talk to might have an idea for prediction. So the first three people who got back to me, I actually sent this out broad scale to about 20 people. First three people that got back to me. The very first one was Tom Kenny, the former CEO of SmashFly, the guy who again made it happen and SmashFly to actually get acquired by Symphony Talent.
Chad: His prediction-
Joel: Speaking of honey destinations and drinks with umbrellas in them, Tom's probably enjoying both of those right about now.
Chad: His prediction was AI is going to bite everyone in the ass. The higher view case is just the tip of the iceberg. I think of it this way. If companies have black box tech making the decisions they can't understand or even defend what's going on with regard to the decisions that are being made for the candidates that are actually coming in. The courts won't like it and obviously the regulators won't like it. And here's a quote from Tom: "it's not going to be the solution everyone thought it would be. The hype will drag down companies and industry is going to smarten up around what AI can do and what it can't do. And when it comes to making these types of decisions behind closed doors wrapped up in a black box that looks like it's going to be problematic".
Joel: Well good, Tom with a thoughtful answer. Government as well. By the way, should we make a presidential prediction? Maybe think about it and we'll revisit at the end here.
Chad: Yeah, let's see that.
Joel: All right, keep going.
Chad: All right. So then we have Dennis