I mean, could we really NOT do a 2020 Election episode?
Of course not, so we've invited infamous social media troll Ted Bauer - equal parts northeast liberal and Texas conservative - to the podcast. The guys talk about everything from what went array in 2016, to the top issues and differences of 2020 and, of course, predictions.
If Sovren's AI would've had this discussion it would have been much smarter... Enjoy and VOTE!
PODCAST TRANSCRIPTION sponsored by:
SOVREN PROMO (2s):
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President Trump (46s):
I'm really rich.
Hide your kids! Lock the doors! You're listening to HR’s most dangerous podcast. Chad Sowash and Joel Cheeseman are here to punch the recruiting industry, right where it hurts! Complete with breaking news, brash opinion and loads of snark, buckle up boys and girls, it's time for the Chad and Cheese podcast.
Joel (1m 8s):
Election day podcasts. Remember the band Arcadia that was made up of like free Duran Duran members, hit song Election Day. Yeah. Yeah.
Chad (1m 18s):
I don't know. I don't quite remember that song probably, because it was shit.
Joel (1m 25s):
All the ladies love Duran Duran. And if you wanted to get in with the ladies, you needed to know a little bit of a Simon Labon.
Chad (1m 34s):
All right ladies and gentlemen, today, we are going to be talking about election stuff and we're just going to have a, just a pure discussion about some of the shit that's been going on. We brought Ted Bauer on today.
Joel (1m 45s):
Who is Ted Bauer?
Applause (1m 47s):
Clappping and cheering.
Chad (1m 48s):
He's one of the, and here's the reason why I wanted to have Ted on. Ted is one of those guys on social media that post memes for shock value, but instead of just yelling MAGA and running away and every response, he, he looks for a real interaction and Ted has a conversation around the stupidity that's actually happening. So I thought, we have a stupid show. Ted likes to talk about stupid shit. Let's get Ted on. Let's talk about the election, Ted, give us a little bit, little Twitter bio about you.
Joel (2m 20s):
Let's get stupid.
Ted Bauer (2m 22s):
Yes I am generally stupid, but I appreciate that intro because that is what I try to do. Like I think, especially in the last two to four years, we've had a lot of bullshit swirling around. So I try to like engage with both sides about it. Cause there is a validity to both sides, even if we don't always see it. But, and then just like generally from a vocational sense, I've write for people. So like ghost writing, freelance stuff, marketing.
Joel (2m 54s):
Are you the one writing all that direct mail that I'm getting right now? Are you the one behind that shit?
Ted Bauer (2m 58s):
I've only done one time. And I've been doing this shit like five years and I've only done a direct mail thing like once. So I've stayed out of that fray, which is cool.
Chad (3m 9s):
Let's get into the, into the soup here, kids. So first and foremost, Joel and myself and our wives spent 2016 together hoping that we were going to see a president Hillary Clinton, that never happened. And that night evolved into some shit. So the question is, how did we get here first off, Ted? How did, how did we get here? This is kind of like a quick post-mortem.
Ted Bauer (3m 38s):
Okay. Well, first of all, real quick, I don't know if you guys are familiar with Leon Bridges, the singer?
Joel (3m 44s):
Was he in Duran, Duran?
Ted Bauer (3m 47s):
I think he had a big song that was on that Big Little Lies, the HBO show. And he was on a Super Bowl commercial last year, but randomly I watched the 2016 election at the same bar as him. So that's my little like celebrity tie in. Like, I don't have a cool wife story about how that night devolved but wrong. I did watch it with a guy that has been on a Reese Weatherspoon HBO show, his music, at least.
Chad (4m 15s):
So when, while you were sitting there and then afterwards, right? I mean, what went wrong? If there were some things that you could boil it down to? Right. What went wrong?
Ted Bauer (4m 25s):
Okay. Well, it seems like the big ones are Hilary pulled out of upper Midwest too early. I feel like that was a big thing that didn't get covered as much, as it was happening, but kind of screwed her, cause it felt like it all came down to the upper Midwest. At the end of the day, I do feel like I was walking my dog the next morning. And I was like pulling up local media, YouTube videos from like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, whatever. And you know, you have that whole JD Vance, like hillbilly LG narrative about like how the Midwest got gutted by like technology and all that shit. And I agree with that, to an extent that's a big, the media likes to bang that drum, but it is true.
Ted Bauer (5m 10s):
And I found like, I remember I was walking my dog, he was like taking a shit in this field. I used to live next to like a golf course. So I used to like in a show against the elites, I used to like, let him shit on the golf course sometimes. So I just remember I found this video from Ohio and this guy was like, you know, my, like my grandfather worked for Whirlpool for 25 years and my dad worked there for 35 years. And then I started there and then they outsourced 700 jobs. And like, Trump was only one talking about jobs.
Joel (5m 46s):
Hey, Ted, do you feel like, do you feel like the Hillary not going to the Midwest States, was that hubris or was it a strategic fart by the campaign?
Ted Bauer (5m 56s):
I think it's a mix of both, man. I think she probably thought she had those tied up because they're not that they all have been solidly blue, but maybe she was seeing numbers that she had them tied up. But I, I think it's partially strategic fart too. So that would be the big chunk. I do think, like I don't buy the toll Trump fake news thing, but yeah, there was that huge Biden, Hillary, Obama rally in Philadelphia, like by the Liberty Bell and it had a bunch of people and that was all that got covered. But Trump that night had like a 30,000 person rally in Michigan and then obviously like only Fox news covered it.
Ted Bauer (6m 41s):
Right. So that I don't buy his fake news shit that much. But that was something that even like a week after I was like, huh, like I don't watch Fox news. I had no idea that he had 30K people added like an assembly plant in Michigan the night before this election. Right.
Joel (7m 2s):
Sure. How much does, did Comey's investigation affect the election if at all?
Ted Bauer (7m 7s):
I think it played in, but I do think like sometimes people that are more educated and like close to a lead or whatever who like follow the news and subscribe to newsletters and watch cable and shit. I feel like they know about that stuff and care about it more than an average voter. Like I kind of feel the same way about Russia. Like we made a big deal on Russia and I do think they did something, but if really all they did was like buy Facebook ads. I don't know how much that shifted the electorate.
Chad (7m 41s):
Have you watched the Social Dilemma?
Ted Bauer (7m 43s):
Yeah. Yeah, for sure.
Chad (7m 45s):
So there's, there's a little bit of that in there. So, Joel, what are your thoughts?
Joel (7m 49s):
I feel like there was a lot of hubris, not just by the Hillary folks, but just by the country. You know, Obama was a very sort of calming candidate and president and we had eight years of sort of just nice, presidential behavior. Clearly we know now that there was a huge segment of the population that felt left behind by that whole period. But I think that a lot of people who would normally be energized and engaged on the blue side of the political spectrum were sort of lulled into believing that no way could a Trump presidency happen. I think that's changed now. And we'll talk a little bit about how what's different in 2020, but I think there was, there was definitely a lull of like, this could never happen.
Joel (8m 34s):
We're better than this. And, and combined with that, I think that the Russian thing does have an impact. And I think it was less about the ads that were bought versus, you know, the fake media entities that were created. You know, my dad, my dad is my dad is the focus group for what's wrong with that whole side of, and my dad would stories from, you know, the Independence Journal, right. Which is, which is nothing. It's just, it's a made up website that looks like a legitimate paper and the shit that they were spewing was ridiculous. But I really feel like, because my dad being 80, 80 something, thought, Oh, this is a real publication providing news about, you know, this sex ring and the bottom of every Starbucks in the world.
Joel (9m 20s):
Yeah. I do think that had an impact. I think, I think Comey saying was a little bit of like, Oh yeah, see, Hilary's crooked. Put her in jail that affected a few things. So those were minimal to the point of, I think the big thing was like, we just kind of fell asleep at the wheel and I don't think that's going to happen in 2020. Chad, what are your thoughts?
Chad (9m 40s):
Yeah, I think, I think Hillary could have made one decision that would've changed everything. If you, if you think of Hillary's running mate was Tim Kaine. And I think that was a horrible choice. Eight years of Obama and then, so now we're going back to business as usual. I think if she would have chose Corey Booker, then the repression, or what have you of the voter, you know, the voters that the black side of the house, I don't think that would have happened. I think they would have actually come out to vote because they wouldn't have felt that it was business as usual. I mean, just one change that could have been one change. I don't think there would have been anything that we could have done about Facebook other than Obama actually cracking down on it, but he was afraid to crack down on it because he thought that it was going to look like he was doing it for Hillary.
Joel (10m 27s):
How about the, just real quick, do you think the Bernie, the Bernie bros were an impact because I think there was a share reaction to like, for sure, fuck the establishment. We're going to stay home or we're going to vote for the opposition.
Ted Bauer (10m 38s):
Yeah. I think, I think it was a factor if you talk about like, okay, the total thing was probably decided by like less people that can fit in University of Michigan stadium, then there's enough. There's enough. Bernie people that could probably have flipped it.
Joel (10m 54s):
Did you just bring up Michigan and our podcast?
Chad (10m 59s):
They could have fit in the horse shoe.
Ted Bauer (11m 1s):
The horse shoe. What I was going to say too, is like, I do feel like there was hubris on the pollster side too. And I feel like Luntz has said this, but like, if we get 2020 horribly wrong. And like, right now we're saying Biden plus 10 by 10 plus six and swaying or whatever. If we get it horribly wrong and it's like Trump, 330 electoral vote or whatever, like, can anybody trusts polling in the next, like 40 years?
Joel (11m 31s):
Chad (11m 32s):
That's the problem right now is the whole trust factor. And that's exactly what Trump's been able to push is you can't trust. You can't trust anybody, but him, you can't trust the media. You can't trust doctors. You can't trust pollsters. You can't trust any of it. Right? None of it can you trust. Only I can fix it.
President Trump (11m 53s):
"I am the chosen one."
Ted Bauer (11m 54s):
Do you think there's been like a general erosion of expertise or trust in expertise in the last few years relative to other periods? Cause I don't know about like 52 to 56 or whatever, but it does feel like we, like, you know, you get somebody that is a fucking PhD in some subject, right? And it's like, he'll post something on Twitter and his accounts verified and the fact that he's done all this research is in his bio. And like some guy will be like fake news, exactly. I just spent 30 years on this.
Ted Bauer (12m 34s):
Chad (12m 35s):
You've got to take a look at, this has been really a schooling on disinformation campaigns and how to actually in, you know, in today's world, pull off a disinformation campaign. And we we've been okay at it over the years and, and spreading disinformation in many different ways, whether it's using the internet, but, but not to this level of toxicity. So I think this is one of the things that we have to realize is that we as a country have that hubris or we're like, Oh yeah, nobody can crack into here. Nobody can, nobody can impact us. Well, guess what kids?
Joel (13m 12s):
Ted Bauer (13m 13s):
Exactly wrong? I'm not a huge fan. I like all the disinformation stuff you polls. But I did, I laughed for like five minutes about that Despacito thing when it was like Biden, once it played Despacito on his phone and they put it as like, fuck the police.
Chad (13m 34s):
So what's the difference? What's the difference in 2020 now versus 2016? What do you think it will be the difference or, or won't be the difference for, for Biden and Kamala?
Ted Bauer (13m 46s):
Okay. Well, the thing we can't ignore is that he's a guy and she was a woman and I still think we have problems with that, but a lot of people have strong opinions on her. I think Biden a lot of people are like, okay, I don't love him, but I don't, he doesn't massively offend me. He's just kind like.
Joel (14m 4s):
He's Uncle Joe.
Ted Bauer (14m 5s):
Yeah, he's like a dopey career politician. Right. And that you can get into a whole rabbit hole about whether we should have career politicians. We shouldn't. But the thing is, I don't think he offends a lot of people, maybe 3% of the far right are like, Oh, he's going to sell us a China or whatever. But I think most voters are like, Oh, he's just a fucking old guy that reminds me of my uncle that I see every other Thanksgiving.
Chad (14m 30s):
We got two old white guys though, running for president. So Joel, what do you see the difference?
Joel (14m 36s):
They're so different though. I mean, so, so on one end we basically sign up for the reality show for season two and just like the Apprentice, it was sort of fun. And the first couple of seasons and you know, like, like I told Chad by the last season, they had to get Gary Busey on, you know, for people actually watch it. And I feel like God, if we sign up for a four years of that, like good Lord, I don't know if I can, I can't deal with my wife for sure. Right. And then on the other end, I think we have, I don't know, almost sort of an Ike Eisenhower guy, right? Like we got through World War II, everyone sort of just spent, you know, we bombed Japan. It was like, let's just take a breath.
Joel (15m 18s):
Let's just exhale. Let's turn the temperature down, you know, in the oven. Cause we're about to boil over and really do some damage. So, you know, I'm an optimist, you know, we'll get into predictions later, but I just feel like with the pandemic, the unemployment that is just getting started and in my opinion, everything that's going on globally, the rise of China, like I think, you know, for me personally, I just want to take an exhale break. I want to like step back and have someone like Uncle Joe come in for four years, make nice with our allies, have some, have some control of this virus and this pandemic.
Joel (16m 0s):
And then like in 2024, we'll come out and we'll figure it out at that point. But right now I just feel like, man, we need to like chill the fuck out. Cause we're about to blow up.
Ted Bauer (16m 10s):
I agree. I'm I, the Apprentice thing is a good analogy too, because it was funny. Like the New York times tax return stuff, he basically was like, right before Apprentice season one, he was like, shit, I need something? Right.
Chad (16m 28s):
Ted Bauer (16m 28s):
So it's like,
President Trump (16m 30s):
I'm really rich.
Ted Bauer (16m 31s):
There was a new Yorker article about this like two years ago. That was pretty good. But like, you can, you can blame all this at some level on Mark Burnett, you know, just like resurrecting him when like in 1999, 2000, 2001, all he was doing was like shitty branding deals in the Middle East. Right. He wasn't even
Joel (16m 52s):
Fahrenheit 119, Michael Moore movie where he, he theorizes that the whole announcing for president was to get NBC, to pay him more money than Gwen Steffani who had just signed a contract for the Voice, which was more than his contract. And before, you know, it everyone's like sweet Trump presidency and he just rolled with it and accidentally fell into the presidency.
Ted Bauer (17m 14s):
Yeah. I've heard that theory. And it's sadly like it's completely viable.
Chad (17m 18s):
It is. It is. It is. So let's, let's jump into like the two or three key issues you think are actually pressing voters. So Joel, what do you got?
Joel (17m 30s):
Pandemic, pandemic and pandemic.
Chad (17m 33s):
Joel (17m 34s):
I mean, I'm joking, but you know, I feel like not only the, the scourge of the virus, but how we've handled it and how we want to as a country handle it. And I think the long-term global effects of, of the pandemic and where, where are places in that world? So if you, if you take each of these separately, one is like, okay, we have one presidential candidate. Who's saying like, we need to wear a mask. We need to distance ourselves, we need to take control, we need to listen to scientists and doctors and like create policy around that. And we have one who says, fuck that we're rounding the bend. We have 50,000 people in a rally who aren't wearing masks.
Chad (18m 12s):
Listen to me.
Joel (18m 13s):
You know, I'm, I'm going to magically come up with the, with the, with the vaccine after election day. I know I told you it'd be gone by Easter. I know I told you it'd be gone by summer, but this time, I mean, it it's going to be gone after you reelect me. So on that, and I think it's important on the other is like globally. We're seeing the rise of China. I mean, we saw that we saw that in any way, but now we're seeing it expedited and accelerated. I mean, Asia is going to see actual growth in their economy this year. And I think they're going to lap us in many ways. And I think if their outreach to Europe and all this is more attractive than ours, that becomes a real problem in terms of sort of the global balance of power.
Chad (18m 56s):
Yeah, cause we we've pulled out of all of those conversations and I mean the French, the Paris Accord, I mean all that shit. Right. So it's like, there's a vacuum. Who's going to fill it. Yeah.
Joel (19m 6s):
Yes. If I had a magic wand and Biden became president, I would make Barack Obama, the Secretary of State for like 12 to 24 months and just say, Hey, Barry, fix it. Like go to Europe, go to wherever you need to go. And like, make nice with everybody. It may not be Barak. It might be who knows Mitt Romney or somebody. But I mean, I hope that happens because it needs to. So yeah, I mean, I think the economy and all those things that are normally an issue, but I think most people now are going to vote based on what is the next 12, 24, you know, 48 months look like in terms of tackling this problem that's a worldwide pandemic.
Chad (19m 48s):
Yeah. Ted says no to a, PO doing anything in the administration. What are your top three there, Ted?
Ted Bauer (19m 55s):
Okay. Obviously pandemic would be one just like how he's handled it to this point and perceptions there. And I would say you can avoid economy. And China obviously plays into economy to some level. I do think what you guys said, maybe five minutes ago about, white collar even, we're probably only in like the early second wave of layoffs, right? So you're going to have like higher income professionals loosing their jobs. And some of that class probably feels like they're protected by Trump or the right in general or whatever. So economy is going to be a big one.
Ted Bauer (20m 36s):
And then I don't buy, like the suburbs, law and order, safety stuff as much because it feels like a big dog whistle or whatever.
Chad (20m 47s):
Ted Bauer (20m 48s):
But, but the affirmatively furthering fair housing thing that Obama and Biden did, which was supposed to encourage communities to allow more affordable housing apartment and condo, smaller single family houses, to go up. Trump ended that. And so I do feel like there is a class of suburban women who probably still fear that, Oh, like if a black family and minority family moves in two doors down, that's going to do something to their house or whatever. I don't know what the turnout in that class will be. And it's mixed because I also know there's a right leaning, suburban women that are like tired of him tweeting.
Ted Bauer (21m 29s):
So they're kind of like moving away from him in that regard. I don't know which side is greater, so that's going to be interesting. So I would say pandemic is number one probably far and away. Two would be economy, which like the role of China versus our role plays into that. And three would be this whole like law and order subdivision safety thing. Right? And it just depends like, which of those I feel like pandemic is probably going to flare up the most in terms of influencing a person's vote.
Joel (22m 4s):
Do you feel like Trump has the leg up on the China question?
Ted Bauer (22m 8s):
Yeah, because I think that even to go back to what I was saying before, even though I think that not everybody follows like Hunter Biden drama or whatever, just the fact that there are nuggets and kernels and breadcrumbs out there where you can like more easily tie Biden and his family to countries you haven't heard of, or can't locate easily or whatever, you know, like Trump might be in bed with all of them and he's done branding deals in Asia for years. But I think for an average person just looking at the news slash Facebook, whatever, it's easier to tie Biden into like, Oh, he's probably in bed with them.
Ted Bauer (22m 51s):
So Trump probably wins that narrative for an average person. Yeah.
Joel (22m 54s):
It's interesting you went that direction. I was thinking more like, I think that, you know, the tough on China thing resonates pretty well with, with voters. And so I think that's an advantage Trump, but it's interesting that you took a different, different way. Chad, what do you think are the top three issues?
Chad (23m 11s):
First off? I think it's, it's interesting that you think that with Ivanka getting like, I don't know how many different patents and trademarks in China, since her dad's been in that, that you think that, that Biden's in deeper. That's, that's interesting. Overall. I think healthcare is one of the things that we need to think about as we're talking about COVID, we're talking about a pandemic and we're talking about wanting to take away healthcare from how many millions of people. And you know, we're talking about all these, you know, well, I'm not going to take away your healthcare. The thing that pissed me off, and, and I was a Republican before Trump's dumb ass, because he pushed me out of the party. As I started to see these Republicans who were her, who were pissed off about Obamacare.
Chad (23m 56s):
And then they had the opportunity to bring options to the table, plans to the table, to be able to evolve what they wanted to be, nothing happened. And we still have a president who's saying, Oh, well, I've got a healthcare plan. That's coming, dude. You've been saying that for four fucking years, you're a liar. So the healthcare piece for me is huge because we need to cover our people to ensure that they're healthy. But one thing that gets me and I got to ask you guys both this. What one disinformation campaign works the best to do to drive division one, just one topic?
Ted Bauer (24m 32s):
That's a good question, man. I would say like, it seems recently that sadly, like one of the biggest things has been early voting timelines, when election day actually is, there was a thing a couple of days ago that like Facebook approved ads to run on November 4th from the Trump campaign in like four States. I think Arizona was one of them that basically, as I say, like it's a new morning in America and Donald Trump is still your president, which is like true because the inauguration wouldn't be till January.
Ted Bauer (25m 12s):
But just like the fact that people don't know like basic dates and timelines within their, where they live is like a little bit concerning and that can get exploited real easily.
Chad (25m 23s):
The American voter, the American population is ridiculously uneducated around something they should hold close to their heart.
Ted Bauer (25m 33s):
Chad (25m 34s):
Joel, what do you think?
Joel (25m 36s):
So your question is misinformation or sort of?
Chad (25m 39s):
Yeah, just the one campaign thing that you think drives the major, major division?
Joel (25m 43s):
I think ultimately Trump represents sort of this white patriarchal history of America. So, so I think that the wedge of, you know, the, the law and order, the looting, the Antifa stuff that I think most of the stuff that went on was peaceful. It was, it wasn't looting, It wasn't breaking stuff, obviously that happened. But I think sort of building this, like it's either us or them and them is the whore, you know, the Huns at the gate, they want to raid the suburbs. They want to destroy your schools. They want to take your guns.
Joel (26m 23s):
They want to just basically it was this whole sort of putting us, pitting us against each other, I think has been the biggest detriment to sort of our society. But I think unfortunately it's probably work the best in Trump's favor because I think a lot of the suburbs and older people are going to go vote and think, Oh my God, if Biden gets in, in addition to my 401k going to zero and you know, everything else going bad, you know, like those people are going to come and really fuck shit up. And I think that's a real sad, sad component of this.
Chad (26m 56s):
Yeah, I agree. I agree. It's it's the, the, the racial division to an extent, but also it can, I think maybe second is the, the bullshit disinformation around capitalism versus socialism, Oh, Americans is going to become this socialist country. It's like you stupid motherfuckers. And then people listen thinking that it's a black or white choice, right. It's, it's either capitalism or socialism. When we've had a blended government for years, we need to tweak the fuck out of it, don't get me wrong. Right. But this whole narrative around capitalism versus socialism, I think splits us because people don't understand basic economics.
Ted Bauer (27m 34s):
Not at all. And I mean, you could argue, and I've gotten yelled at online a ton of times for this, but like the New Deal was basically socialists in many respects, you know?
Chad (27m 44s):
No, there's no argument around that. How is there a fucking argument around that? We created jobs that the United States government created jobs and then started fucking paying those people. How is it not a socialist activity? I mean, come on.
President Trump (27m 60s):
Don't be rude.
Ted Bauer (28m 2s):
Here's one thing I was going to ask y'all to, we can go into predictions probably after this, but like, I will just looked it up this morning and we have not gone over 60% on eligible voter age since '68. Right. So a lot of people this year wrote the '68 to 2020 comparison articles because of unrest and all this shit going on and lootings or whatever. So do you think, first of all, do you think we go over 60% of eligible voters? Or do you think that pandemic, I know we've had record early voting. Do you think the pandemic like makes tomorrow like a non-starter and then we stay under 50?
Ted Bauer (28m 46s):
Like I think 2016 was 55% of eligible. Do you think we got over 60? Do you think there's like our biggest turnout in decades? Or do you think it's like fucking low as hell?
Chad (28m 58s):
Yeah. It'll be big.
Joel (28m 59s):
Yes. Big thing.
Chad (29m 1s):
Big. There'll be big. Yeah. So that part of the predictions it'll be big. Joel, what are your, wha